457
FXUS61 KGYX 171036
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
636 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain entrenched east of the region through
midweek before some moisture over the southeastern states
builds north increasing the chance for showers south of the
mountains Wednesday night and Thursday with cooler
temperatures. Canadian high pressure builds in from the north to
end the week and through the weekend with seasonable
temperatures and dry weather expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
635 AM...Valley fog in place again this morning, but should burn
off by 12-13Z, maybe a little sooner than previous days given
better BL flow. Otherwise should be another warm and mainly
sunny day.

Previously...590 dam ridge at 500 MB still stretches from
roughly the Great Lakes ESE to S of the maritimes, with
elongated sfc ridge located beneath. Th ridging slowly breaks
down today into Wed, as it bit acted upon by weak waves passing
well to our n, and the remnant closed low from the pseudo
tropical system now over the Carolinas. After the, what has
become, daily morning fog in the valleys, the warm air holds in
place today, and with the ridge breaking down will see a bit
more of a WSW flow, albeit weak, but should allow the sea breeze
to hold off later than on Monday. As such, highs will generally
be in the 80-85 range across all but the immediate coast where
temps will still get into the mid to upper 70s. Other than some
thin and patch cirrus moving through the SW half of the CWA it
should be mainly sunny.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The ridging continues to weaken tonight, as a large mid level
col develops between the Great Lakes and the maritimes. So,
whatever weak flow there is during the day becomes less tonight.
This will allow patchy fog to develop in more areas tonight,
and could allow marine lyr to move onshore with fog and low
clouds, although likely will be limited to coastal zones. Min
temps should be similar to this mornings, generally range from
around 50 in the mtns and the colder spots to the mid 50s near
the coast and in S NH.

There may be more cirrus on Wed, as the ridging breaks sown,
but, it should not prevent a mostly sunny day. The lack of flow
will prevent much mixing occurring, and max temps will be
slightly lower than today, but still should range from the mid
70s near the coast to low 80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY Wed night, moisture from a low pressure system moving over
the Carolinas will lift northward bringing more in the way of
clouds and low chances for rain late Wednesday night into
Friday. The best chances for rain will be across southern New
Hampshire while total precipitation on whole will likely average
below normal for the long term period. A cold front moving
southwest through Maine will shunt this moisture southward
Friday followed by high pressure building in from the north over
the weekend.

Weak troughing will linger along the East Coast Thursday into
Friday, while the majority of model solutions keep any
appreciable rainfall south and east of the area. Therefore, the
current precipitation deficit for the month of September looks
to increase through the end of the week. Highs on Thursday will
mainly be in the mid to upper 70s lowering to the low 70s on
Friday. A cold front dropping southwest through the area Friday
will usher in a cooler and drier air mass over the weekend. High
pressure building in behind the front will bring fair weather
with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Valley fog at KLEB/KHIE will persist until around
13Z again, with a brief sunrise surprise possible at KCON or
KRKD, but otherwise expect VFR into this evening. More terminals
will see some fog late tonight, especially along the coast as
marine layer moves in. Still, expecting a return to VFR at all
terminals during the first half of the morning.

Long Term...VFR likely prevails during the day time Wednesday
through Saturday. Night time valley fog will bring the potential
for IFR/LIFR most nights at KLEB and KHIE. Onshore flow and
increasing clouds from a system passing south of New England
will also bring the potential for cigs around MVFR thresholds
Wednesday night and Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA criteria through Wed
night.

Long Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds Wednesday
and Thursday. Southerly flow Wednesday shifts NE Thursday as low
pressure approaches and stays south of New England. Low
pressure passing south of the Gulf of Maine will bring seas
building to 5 ft by Friday with continued NE flow with gusts
around 20 kts. Seas remain elevated around 5 feet into the
weekend with NE winds subsiding from their peak on Friday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Schroeter
AVIATION...
MARINE...