454
FXUS61 KGYX 230722
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
322 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An ocean storm centered between Cape Cod and Bermuda continues
to churn up the Western Atlantic, and will continue slowly
drifting away from New England over the next couple days. A
persistent northeast wind will maintain high surf along the
coast through at least Tuesday. The elevated astronomical tide
cycle and storm surge, in combination with increased waves
bring another round of minor splash over during this afternoon`s
high tide. High pressure will gradually try and build into the
region through the week, bringing mostly seasonable temperatures
and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An axis of high pressure extends across New England today, but
that doesn`t prevent moisture from moving in through the mid and
upper levels. A mid level cloud deck has moved in off the ocean
on the northeasterly flow into southern and central New
Hampshire, as well as southwest Maine. This area likely
dissipates through the morning, but more clouds are likely to
stream in through the day. The same time, high clouds associated
with a system in the Great Lakes stream in through the upper
levels. From these two areas of clouds, a brief sprinkle can`t
be ruled out today, but for the most part this forecast kept
POPs below a slight chance.

With the northeasterly flow and clouds, another seasonably cool
day is expected with highs in the 60s across the area. High
surf and rip currents continue to be a concern, with large waves
still arriving from the offshore ocean storm, now centered
between Cape Cod and Bermuda. For this reason, a high surf
advisory remains in effect through the day today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A seasonably cool night is expected tonight as an area of
subsidence from the building high helps to break up the cloud
cover overnight, leading to better radiational cooling
conditions. Lows drop into the 40s across most of the area, with
a few upper 30s possible across some of the northern valleys.
Fog is also expected to develop through the valleys tonight, but
otherwise a cool and quiet night looks to be in store.

Tomorrow looks quite similar to today, with another push of
moisture aloft into the ridge bringing increasing clouds through
the morning, which linger through the day. A stray sprinkle
also can`t be ruled, but remains a very low chance. Highs look
to be within a couple of degrees of today`s highs in the 60s.
Surf and rip currents are a concern again tomorrow as the ocean
storm persists. So all in all a very similar day to today as the
pattern remains persistent.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some changes in the overall long range forecast, but the main
feature of a deepening and closing off 500 MB trough tracking SE
from James Bay mid-late week is still the main feature,
although track and strength changes have occurred in the models,
partially to presence of tropical cyclone developing over the
Gulf of Mexico and moving into the southern CONUS. Initial
ridging ahead of that system should make for a dry and mainly
sunny Tuesday, and Wed looks mostly dry as well with the
unsettled period focused on Wed night -Thu night, with a return
to dry wx for the weekend.

Sfc ridge continues to nose SW from the center of strong high
pressure over Labrador on Tuesday, and should see mainly sunny
skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s, which is pretty close
to normal. Clouds will begin to move in Tue night, mainly cirrus
which will affect rad cooling somewhat, although probably not
too much in the mtns valleys, and lows range from the low to mid
40s in the mtns to the low 50s in the S. The sfc ridge hangs on
for much of Wed, but I think more clouds and sun as the mid and
high clouds thicken, especially in the afternoon. A few showers
may be possible in the afternoon across NH as well, but they
will be scattered.

The best chance for showers will be Wed night into Thu, as
energy moving through base of closed aloft combine with some mid
level WAA. Showers should move from NW -SE Wed night and
continue through Thu across the CWA. Highs Thu will mostly be in
the 60s. By Friday, the system shifts to our SE and should see
clearing in N flow with highs in the 65-70 range. The weekend
looks dry with temps running above normal in the mid 60s to low
70s N to S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...A period of IFR to LIFR conditions is likely at
LEB and HIE by daybreak in developing valley fog, which then
clears by mid-morning. Fog is possible again tonight at these
terminals. Elsewhere, mainly VFR conditions persist through with
a midlevel cloud deck present at times. CON may see a brief
period of MVFR this morning, but returns to VFR soon after.

Long Term...Mainly VFR expected Tue-Wed, although flight
restrictions are likely by Wed night, and especially on
Thursday, in rain and low cigs. The restrictions will likely
linger into Thu night, but should see a return to VFR Friday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions persist across the outer waters and
Casco Bay as an ocean storm continues to churn up the Western
Atlantic. High pressure continues to build southward across the
waters through tomorrow.


Long Term...While winds are likely to remain below SCA
criteria, pulses of low pressure S of the waters over the next
several days will keep the swell up near 5-6 feet through much
of the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides continues to come down from their astronomical peak for
the month but storm surge remains near 1 ft. Water levels likely
don`t quite reach flood stage today, but persistent large waves
of 5 to 8 feet are likely to bring another round of minor
splashover south of Portland. For this reason, and coastal flood
statement has been issued for the afternoon high tide.

Beach surveys and Emergency Managers continue to indicate
compromised dune systems along the coastline from our storms
this past winter...which will limit natural protection.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023-024.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152>154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Cempa