861
FXHW60 PHFO 060126
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
326 PM HST Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will diminish as dry and stable conditions build over
the area and a land and sea breeze pattern emerges for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Afternoon satellite and radar imagery show flat, textureless
clouds off the windward coasts and virtually nil shower activity.
A sharp trade wind inversion is noted on this afternoon`s
soundings, a consequence of transient shortwave ridging building
in from the northwest and dry advection aloft coming from the
east. By tomorrow, this transient ridging will be replaced by
stronger and broader ridging that is currently building eastward
across the Central Pacific. This will set the stage for
increasingly stable and dry conditions persisting into next week.
This period of ridging will also force the trade wind belt to
weaken and migrate south of the islands leading to warmer weather
and an expansion of sea breezes for coastal areas. &&

.AVIATION...

Trade winds will gradually weaken through tomorrow as the
pressure gradient over the island chain relaxes, with moderate to
breezy winds expected through today and light to moderate winds
expected on Thursday. Bands of clouds and light showers will favor
east and northeast facing slopes and coasts through this evening
as they ride in on the trades. Brief MVFR conditions will be
possible with these low clouds and light showers, otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail statewide. On Thursday, lighter winds will
allow for land and sea breeze development and drier air will
filter in...allowing for less overall low to mid level cloud cover
and very limited light shower activity.

Though weaker than yesterday, lingering mid-level atmospheric
instability has allowed convective showers to develop over
interior and upslope portions of the Big Island this afternoon.
These showers will continue into the evening. Stability is
expected to increase later in the week as mid level ridging builds
over the state.

No AIRMETs are in effect, nor are any expected to be needed
through tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...

No surprises with the afternoon package. The ridge to the north of
the islands continue to slowly sinking southward, weakening the
trade winds over the region. Expect winds to remain below Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through the end of the week. Over the
weekend, the ridge will lift to the north, allowing moderate trade
winds to return from south to north.

A series of low pressure systems in the far south Pacific will
continue to generate swells that will pass through the islands
over the next week or so. The current south-southwest swell has
started to decline, with a gradual decline expected to continue
through Thursday. Another reinforcing south-southwest swell is
expected to arrive late Thursday and Friday, that is currently
expected to bring south facing shore surf around the seasonal
average. Another swell is expect to arrive this coming weekend, which
will could bring surf near High Surf Advisory levels. Yet another
swell is expected to arrive late next week that would once again
bring surf at or above advisory levels.

The current small northwest swell continue to decline. Another
small pulse from the northwest is expected to build through
Thursday keeping surf elevated. Wind waves for east facing shores
will diminish significantly tonight and tomorrow coinciding with
the light winds into the weekend.
&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...M Ballard