Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
626 FXHW60 PHFO 161901 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 901 AM HST Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Stable, breezy trades will trend stronger and somewhat wetter as the week progresses. Trades continue into at least early next week. && .DISCUSSION... A strong trade wind inversion sloping from around 6kft at Hilo to 8kft at Lihue is noted on this morning`s observed soundings. Decent saturation in the top half of the boundary layer of the Lihue sounding matches the morning cloud distribution well with breezy trades delivering ample clouds and rather limited/brief showers windward and mauka. Trade wind weather persists through the forecast period as the large scale pattern undergoes little in the way of change. Building mid-level ridging over the Central Pacific Basin will cause the surface gradient to strengthen over the islands during the latter half of the week with locally strong trades in place as early as Thursday. This will also allow slightly richer low- level moisture to be drawn up from the southeast which will foster an increase in trade wind shower coverage during the same period. The overall trend through the week will one of stronger trades and a greater coverage of showers, particularly windward and mauka during the overnight and early morning hours. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy ENE trade winds will continue over the next several days. Periods of MVFR conditions will be possible across windward and mauka areas as low clouds and showers ride in on the trades, particularly during the overnight hours when shower coverage is expected to increase. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for windward Big Island. This AIRMET will likely be needed on and off for windward areas across the state through at least tomorrow. AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo moderate low level turbulence lee of the island terrain across the state due to breezy trade winds under a strong tradewind inversion. This AIRMET will likely be needed through today. && .MARINE... A high pressure ridge will remain north of the area and will gradually strengthen through the week. As a result, the trades are expected to become fresh to locally strong, with near gale winds in the Alenuihaha Channel and south of the Big Island on Wednesday. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) currently in effect for the normally windier areas around Maui County and the Big Island will likely continue through the week, with an expansion to include the waters around Kauai and Oahu on Wednesday. Surf along south facing shores will continue to slowly decline as the south swell fades through Monday. Only background small, medium to long period, south to southeast swell energy will move into the region for the rest of the week. North shore surf is expected to be small through the week, coming from small, mainly medium period northwest swells. Surf along east shores will become increasingly rough and choppy from Wednesday onward as the trade winds strenghten across the state. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...Farris MARINE...Kodama