690
FXHW60 PHFO 060603
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
803 PM HST Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface ridge will settle southward during the next couple
days, easing the trades to light levels and allowing for land and
sea breezes to form across much of the state. The ridge will lift
northward this weekend allowing the trades to gradually
strengthen, with moderate to locally breezy conditions returning
Sunday through the middle of next week. Very dry conditions will
greatly limit shower activity through the weekend, with a slight
increase in windward showers expected Monday and Tuesday. A more
typical trade wind pattern should return by the middle of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a east to west oriented ridge of high
pressure is positioned around 200 miles north of Kauai, and is
driving moderate trade winds across the island chain. Infrared
satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies in many windward
areas, with clear to partly cloudy conditions in most leeward
locales. Radar imagery and rain gage observations show very dry
conditions across the state, with only a few very light showers
affecting the Hamakua coast and upslope regions of the Big Island.
Main short term focus continues to revolve around trade wind
trends during the next several days.

The ridge of high pressure north of the state will shift
southward to a location just north of Kauai Thursday and Friday,
easing the trades to light background levels and allowing for land
and sea breezes to form across much of the state. The ridge will
begin to lift northward over the weekend allowing the trades to
gradually strengthen, with moderate to locally breezy conditions
expected Sunday through the middle of next week.

As for the remaining weather details, very stable and dry
conditions remain over the island chain, evident in the sharp
trade wind inversions, at or below 5 kft at both Hilo and Lihue
during the 00z soundings. Little change in the trade wind
inversion is expected through the weekend, which will greatly
limit shower activity across the entire state. The trade wind
inversion will begin to lift early next week, which should bring
a slight increase in trade wind showers Monday and Tuesday, while
still remaining drier than normal for this time of year. A more
typical trade wind pattern should return by the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Trade winds will weaken tonight as the pressure gradient across
the Islands relaxes. This will allow sea breezes to predominate
along leeward coasts in the afternoon and early evening hours.
Meanwhile, mid-level ridging building in on Thursday will make for
an increasingly drier air mass later in the week.

Bands of clouds and light showers carried in off the
Pacific will continue to favor east and northeast facing slopes
and coasts, especially in the late night and morning hours. A
well-defined inversion aloft around 5 kft will inhibit local
shower development most areas. However, limited shower development
is still expected over the higher elevations of the Big Island in
the afternoon hours.

No AIRMETs are in effect or anticipated at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
The ridge to the north of the islands continues to slowly sink
southward, weakening the trade winds over the region. Expect winds
to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through the end
of the week. Over the weekend, the ridge will lift to the north,
allowing moderate trade winds to build back. Guidance shows the
potential for the SCA to return for the typical windier waters
around Maui County and the Big Island to return by Sunday.

A series of low pressure systems in the far south Pacific will
continue to generate swells that will pass through the islands
over the next week or so. The current south-southwest swell has
started to level off at 2 to 3 feet, 14 second energy before
another south- southwest swell is expected to arrive late Thursday
and Friday to bring south facing shore surf around the seasonal
average. Another swell is expected to arrive this coming weekend,
which could bring surf near High Surf Advisory levels. Yet
another swell is expected to arrive late next week that could
once again bring surf at or above advisory levels.

The current small northwest swell continues to decline. Another
small pulse from the northwest is expected to build through
Thursday keeping surf elevated. Wind waves for east facing shores
has diminished significantly and looks to continue into the
weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Bedal
MARINE...Shigesato