Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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588 FXUS64 KHGX 161117 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 617 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A non-tropical low off the Southeastern coastline is progged to pull in the discarded remnants of Francine currently over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should allow the upper ridge over Texas shift eastward. In spite of the ridge`s greater influence, northerly low-level flow and cooler 850mb temperatures should bring slighter cooler highs. By in large, highs will in the upper 80s to upper 90s across the area, possibly a degree or so cooler compared to Sunday. Subsidence and lacking upper level support should keep rain chances slim. Tuesday will feature equally benign weather as well, with lows largely in the 70s. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Mostly dry with moderate to major heat risk are the main weather story in the long term. Ridging aloft remains strong with the axis extending to our west across the central and southern Plains. At the surface, high pressure to our east will continue to bring warm and humid southerly flow into the region. As we head into the weekend, 500 mb heights increase even more (around 588-591 dm), suggesting more subsidence/drier conditions. Even with a dry layer at mid to upper levels, there are still some low level moisture, especially near the coast. Therefore, cannot rule out an isolated shower/storm or two developing along the sea breeze, mainly in the afternoon/early evening. Previous forecast had chances of rain/storm next Saturday and Sunday. However, with the center of the ridge situated over the region; any activity that attempt to develop will need to overcome the cap and any dry air entrainment. Have leaned towards a drier forecast with PoPs only around 15 percent. Temperature-wise, it will continue to be hot with highs mainly in the mid 90s. This is 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Peak heat index values will generally be into the 105 to 107 degF range. Thursday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the week with heat indices at or above advisory criteria across our southwestern counties. Heat headlines will be possible. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Mix of MVFR to LIFR Fog/CIGS should clear up later this morning after sunrise. VFR conditions and light winds, mostly northeasterly, will prevail throughout the day, possibly shifting southerly with the afternoon sea breeze. Another round of patchy fog/CIGs may develop overnight into the early morning hours of Tuesday. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Fair weather continues as surface high pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf remains strong. Light winds and low seas will prevail through most of the period. Light offshore winds will be possible at times today and Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary meanders over the region. However, onshore flow should prevail through most of the week. A few showers or storms will be possible at times, but minimal impacts are expected. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 95 72 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 95 75 94 76 / 10 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 87 77 86 79 / 10 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...03 MARINE...JM