833
FXUS64 KHGX 180747
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Forecast of persistence looks tough to beat as wx pattern remains
status quo. Mid-upper riding should keep the above normal temperatures
going and chances of rain quite low. Overnight lows in the 70s
and daytime highs in the 90s. SREF is somewhat bullish depicting
the potential for some patchy fog late Wed night & early Thurs
morning. That`s about all the excitement I can draw up for the
short term. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Omega blocking aloft will keep ridging in place over Texas through
the end of the week. This puts 500mb heights around 590-592 dam over
SE Texas, with 850mb temperatures ranging between 17-21C. Hot, above
normal conditions should continue Friday into portions of the
weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Rain chances will
be slim, though isolated, diurnally driven showers over the coast
and Gulf waters cannot be ruled out during this period.

An upper level low over the Four corners is progged to push towards
the northeast this weekend, flattening the upper ridge and shifting
it`s center over SE Texas. PWs see a brief, noticeable drop of 1.0-
1.4" with increased subsidence bringing robust capping between 800-
700mb. This should still suppress rain chances for inland areas,
though isolated coastal showers underneath this cap remain possible,
with PoPs gradually increasing into the upcoming week. A slight drop
in 850mb temperatures and decreasing thickness 1000-500mb should
ease surface temperatures down for next week. This means highs in
the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows largely in the 70s. The Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods area could see lows drop below the 70 degree mark.

Global deterministic models suggest that ridging aloft will break
down on Monday/Tuesday. On the other hand, Grand Ensemble clusters
lean towards a zonal flow regime over SE Texas during this period.
In either case, both seem to allude to a more active weather pattern
than the current status quo.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR conditions and light winds should mainly persist. Exception
might be between 9-14z Thurs morning when some terminals, probably
non-metro, will see a bit of patchy fog and potential lower
ceilings in the vicinity. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Light onshore winds and low seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected over
the next several days. Isolated showers and storms will be possible
over the Gulf waters, especially this weekend and early next week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  95  76  95  76 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  90  80  90  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$