995
FXUS64 KHGX 260912
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A few isolated showers again starting to show up along the coast.
Anticipate that these will wane in the mid morning hours. Mid
level subsidence and H7 temps around 11C and H85 temps 19-21C
should generally keep POPs on the very low side, but there`s a
non-zero chance we could see a cell or two emerge toward peak
heating. Southern portions of the CWA would probably be the place
to watch where less hostile capping will be in place along with the
potential for a weak baybreeze or seabreeze. Gusty winds would be
a possibility should any decent one pop up with inverted-v sounding
profile in place. Otherwise, warm/muggy conditions will remain in
place and the ongoing heat advisory configuration & timing will
remain status quo.

Later this evening and overnight we`ll be keeping an eye to our
north and northeast (southern OK/Arkansas/ne TX/northern LA) to
see if any shra/tstms along a weak front and disturbances in the
NNE flow aloft can survive long enough to make it into portions of
southeast Texas. There remains a mix of guidance with varying opinions,
some much more bullish than others. Given the run-to-run inconsistencies,
overall confidence is below average...but feel it`s best to keep
some low POPs in the fcst until observed trends are better established.

Thursday wx looks about the same as today...warm/muggy, with a
non- zero chance of a few isolated storms with peak heating. Will let
the dayshift evaluate the need for any heat advsy extensions.  47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The long term forecast remains dominated by ridging spanning the
Southern CONUS. While the midlevel ridge starts off a tad weaker on
Friday, global ensembles indicate that it will amplify over the
Southeast CONUS/ArkLaTex Region this the weekend into next week.
850mb temperatures are still progged to gradually creep up, further
reflected in the upward trend of multi-run max surface temperature
values. Deep moisture from PWs in excess of 1.75" and weak capping
will still bring a daily chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms.
Rain chances remain greatest for areas largely south of I-10 where
the sea breeze may initiate most activity before tracking further
inland. Impulses rounding the midlevel ridge could further aid in
shower/storm development on Sunday and portions of Monday. On a more
minor note, NASA`s GMAO indicates that plumes of Saharan Dust
will pass over SE Texas on Friday through Sunday. This may result
in hazy- white sky conditions during this period.

Overall, hot conditions should continue through mid next week, with
highs in the upper 80s near the coast to upper 90s inland. Some
isolated spots could see the highs break the triple digit mark.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Heat indices
during the afternoon will range from around 106-112 at their peak,
with isolated higher values possible. The Heat Risk for those
participating in leisurely outdoor activities will be Moderate
(level 3/5) to Major (level 4/5) each day. WBGT values suggest that
those participating in strenuous outdoor activities may feel Extreme
(level 5/5) heat stress during the hottest parts of the day.
Additional Heat Advisories could be warranted throughout this
period. Those planning to spend extensive time outside should
practice heat safety. Remember to drink plenty of fluids, wear
lightweight/loose fitting cloths and take breaks inside away from
the sun.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions should prevail. Exception might be in the morning
hours with the potential for some intermittent MVFR ceilings at
some locations. Storm chances still too low to mention in TAFs,
but can`t rule one out at any individual site across the southern
part of SE Tx. And as mentioned above, will be monitoring the trends
to our n/ne this evening in the event we might need to add the
mention into some TAFs CXO northward if any storms look like they
might survive and possibly make it into portions of the area.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet will prevail
across the SE Texas coast into the weekend. Isolated showers and
storms will be possible daily. Tide levels will also remain elevated
over the next several days.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  78  97  79 /  10  20   0  10
Houston (IAH)  96  79  97  79 /  30  20  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  90  81  91  82 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>213-226-227.

GM...None.

&&

$$