Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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365 FXUS64 KHGX 190730 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Surface ridging across the northern Gulf Coast and expansive mid- upper ridging aloft will maintain above normal temperatures and meager, if any, rain chances. Could see some late night & early morning clouds/patchy fog...but otherwise mclr to pcldy skies with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s. 47 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 An upper level low over the Four corners is progged to push towards the northeast this weekend, flattening the upper ridge and shifting it`s center over SE Texas on Saturday. 500mb heights still sit around 590-592 dam, remaining potent enough to keep highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Subsidence is progged to bring robust capping between 800-700mb, suppressing rain chances for inland areas over the weekend. Isolated coastal showers underneath this cap will still be possible. The ridge gradually breaks down heading into need week, with 850mb temperatures and 500mb heights gradually declining. This should ease surface temperatures down, closer to near-normal conditions. Look for highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows largely in the 70s. The Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area may see lows drop below the 70 degree mark. Global models suggest that an another upper level trough will dig into the Plains on Tuesday/Wednesday, though uncertainty on specifics still remain. Regardless, global ensembles still assert a transition towards a zonal flow regime at least, which should bring higher rain chances through Wednesday. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Temp dewpoint spread is narrowing across parts of the area and suspect we`ll see some patchy fog development commence in the not too distant future...moreso outside the primary metro airports. Say some intermittent 800-1500ft ceilings and 3-6nm vsbys yesterday morning and expect we might see some scattered about early this morning and again early Friday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds should prevail for the vast majority of time. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Light onshore winds and low seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected over the next several days. Isolated showers and storms will be possible over the Gulf waters, especially this weekend and early next week. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 98 76 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 96 76 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 89 80 89 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$