024
FXUS64 KHGX 191812
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
112 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Surface ridging across the northern Gulf Coast and expansive mid-
upper ridging aloft will maintain above normal temperatures and
meager, if any, rain chances. Could see some late night & early
morning clouds/patchy fog...but otherwise mclr to pcldy skies with
highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

An upper level low over the Four corners is progged to push towards
the northeast this weekend, flattening the upper ridge and shifting
it`s center over SE Texas on Saturday. 500mb heights still sit
around 590-592 dam, remaining potent enough to keep highs in the
upper 80s to upper 90s. Subsidence is progged to bring robust
capping between 800-700mb, suppressing rain chances for inland
areas over the weekend. Isolated coastal showers underneath this
cap will still be possible.

The ridge gradually breaks down heading into need week, with 850mb
temperatures and 500mb heights gradually declining. This should ease
surface temperatures down, closer to near-normal conditions. Look
for highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows largely in the 70s.
The Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area may see lows drop below the 70
degree mark. Global models suggest that an another upper level
trough will dig into the Plains on Tuesday/Wednesday, though
uncertainty on specifics still remain. Regardless, global
ensembles still assert a transition towards a zonal flow regime at
least, which should bring higher rain chances through Wednesday.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Light SSE winds with SCT mid clouds are expected this afternoon.
A few light showers will also be possible near the coastal
terminals through late this afternoon. Tonight, periods of MVFR to
IFR conditions due to fog are possible through 13-15Z Friday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through most of this TAF
cycle.

JM


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Light onshore winds and low seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected over
the next several days. Isolated showers and storms will be possible
over the Gulf waters, especially this weekend and early next week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  76  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  96  76  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  80  89  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03