Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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240 FXUS64 KHGX 101921 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 221 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Seeing scattered showers near the coast and across southeast areas early this afternoon. Also seeing scattered showers and storms across northern areas of southeast Texas in association with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary. I am expecting to see isolated convection linger into the early eve hours, especially across well inland central/northern areas. By mid evening, inland activity should have dissipated. Will see scattered showers develop near the coast again tomorrow morning, with activity spreading further inland with heating. The frontal boundary will likely sag south some tonight and then dissipate tomorrow. Still ample moisture around tomorrow with PW values peaking at close to 2 inches, so another aft with scattered storms is expected. On Tuesday night a mid/upper level disturbance will approach from the northwest, and this feature will provide additional lift for showers and storms. It is possible some organized convection associated with this feature will move into western areas of southeast Texas after midnight and towards Wednesday morning. For temperatures, highs will be tempered by clouds/diurnal storms, with max temps peaking in the 90-95 range tomorrow across inland areas. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s for a most of the area with near 80 expected at the coast. Wood && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The SE Texas atmosphere should still feel the influence from Tuesday`s mid/upper level disturbance, likely resulting in at least some widely scattered shower/thunderstorm activity. There continues to be some uncertainty regarding the areal coverage of the rain/storms. We opted for 20-40 PoPs, with the highest values near the I-10 corridor and the lowest across our northern Piney Woods counties. Locally heavier thunderstorms are possible. The trough pushes east as ridging builds over Texas towards week`s end. We left some low PoPs in the forecast for Thursday and Saturday near the coast due to possible isolated sea breeze induced showers/storms. Wednesday-Saturday temperatures are expected to be near to above average with plentiful humidity. Highs are expected to average in the low 90s on Wednesday, then mid 90s Thursday- Saturday. Couldn`t rule out upper 90s in a few spots while coastal highs hover around 90. Overnight lows will predominantly be in the 70s. The pattern could become wetter early next week as a trough axis over the eastern Gulf retrogrades westward towards the western Gulf. Therefore, we introduced 20-40 PoPs on Sunday. We kept Sunday`s inland highs in the mid 90s. If rain chances increase further, then perhaps we can shave a few degrees off those temperatures. Self && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Seeing SCT SHRA and isolated TSRA across southeast and northern areas. With further heating, will likely see more TSRA coverage later this aft, especially central areas. Have VCSH and VCTS at TAF sites this aft. Expecting most activity to dissipate in the 23Z to 1Z window. Tomorrow, expect another day of SCT SHRA/TSRA with heating. Also expecting some MVFR BR at CXO and LBX late tonight. Wood && .MARINE... Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Generally light to moderate onshore flow and low sea should prevail through the end of the week. There will be a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Isolated stronger storms capable of locally higher winds and seas cannot be ruled out. A trough axis over the eastern Gulf of Mexico may push westward and bring a better chance of showers and thunderstorms by early next week. The resulting increasing could increase winds and seas as well. However, much uncertainty exists in the forecast that far out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 91 73 87 / 30 40 30 30 Houston (IAH) 75 91 74 89 / 20 30 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 79 88 79 88 / 20 30 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Self AVIATION...Wood MARINE...Self