881
FXUS64 KHGX 150821
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
321 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Ridging over Texas will continue to bring relatively benign
weather across the region through early next week. A diffuse
boundary spanning NW-SE near Lufkin will slowly intrude into our
area during the day today. This comes as a result of the midlevel
remnants of Francine sagging southward over the Lower Mississippi
River Valley. By this afternoon, this boundary will be set up
along a line from around College Station to Houston, serving as a
focus for convection as weak impulses pass overhead. CAMs are much
more optimistic with storm development this afternoon than
previous days, especially given the lowering heights and reduced
subsidence. Look for scattered to isolated showers and storms this
afternoon, with activity later tapering off this evening.
Decreasing heights & thicknesses may bring temperatures down
slightly, though highs will still be in the upper 80s to upper
90s. Overnight lows will be in the 70s, with isolated spot
possibly dropping below the 70 degree mark.

On Monday, the remnants of Francine begin to interact with a non-
tropical low off the Southeastern coastline. This low will pull
in the remnants of Francine, shifting further east/northeast and
allowing the upper ridge over Texas shift eastward. However, 850mb
flow shifts northerly, funneling cooler 850mb temperatures into
the area. This will lead to slighter cooler highs, though by in
large they`ll still be in the upper 80s to upper 90s across SE
Texas. With greater influence from the the ridge aloft, rain
chances look slim for Monday compared to that of today.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

An omega blocking pattern will remain in place over the central
CONUS with the ridge axis extending just to our northwest. This
pattern will keep the region relatively dry with near to above
normal temperatures. Despite strong subsidence, southerly surface
winds and low-level moisture (mainly along the coast) could
potentially result in a few showers/storms along the sea breeze
Thursday and Friday.

A change in the upper-level pattern is expected towards the end
of the long term as a deepening low develops over the Pacific
Northwest and moves eastward into the Rockies. At the same time,
another Rex Block pattern develops over the eastern CONUS with a
high pressure over the Great Lakes and a low pressure over the
southeastern CONUS. Locally for SE TX, an increase in mid to upper
level vorticity maxes ahead of an approaching surface frontal
boundary will lead to increasing rain chances after Saturday. It
is too far out for specific details as both , deterministic and
its ensemble means are not in good agreement on phase and strength
of this FROPA. Given uncertainty, have kept PoPs from 15 to 20%
Sat and Sun.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Light, variable winds will continue through the night with the
potential for patchy fog bringing visibilities down to 4-6mi at
times. There will also be SCT to BKN clouds at around 1500ft
through the predawn hours. The patchy fog and MVFR CIGs will
dissipate shortly after sunrise. VFR conditions will prevail
through the day on Sunday, but there will be scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms developing across the area during the
afternoon and into the evening. Confidence is low on exactly where
the storms will develop, so kept wording to PROB30 TS at this
time. Southerly winds will prevail through the day, but will be
variable near storms. The shower and storm activity will wane by
2z with light and variable winds returning for Sunday night.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Light south to southwest winds and low seas continue today. Winds
will briefly shift to the north-northwest this evening/tonight
ahead of a passing weak boundary. Isolated showers/storms will
also be possible during this time frame. Light to occasionally
onshore winds resume by Monday afternoon. Winds will vary between
southwesterly and southeasterly throughout the day each day.
Isolated rain/storms are also possible with the best chances
towards the end of the week and into the weekend.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  72  94  71 /  40  30   0   0
Houston (IAH)  97  75  94  75 /  40  30   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  77  87  76 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...JM