Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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063 FXUS64 KHGX 101123 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 623 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The weather pattern for SE TX is expected to be an active one for the start of the week. The increasingly NWly flow aloft will help to bring a series of shortwaves down from the Southern Plains into the area. This combined with a weak front stalling just north of the FA as well as deepening PWs (up to 2"), the sea/bay breeze(s), as well as abundant daytime heating is going to account for scattered acti- vity through this afternoon...and again for tomorrow. However, of note for the short-term, there`s a decent shot for some strong storms heading into Tues night. Models continue to advertise the possibility of storms forming in/around Central TX with the ar- rival/passage of a fairly well-defined short-wave...which could then lead to the development of an MCS. This system is progged to move E and SE through Weds morning. As for temperatures, highs will be somewhat tempered by the clouds/ diurnal storms, with readings likely in the lower 90s for today and tomorrow. Overnight lows will range from the lower to mid 70s for a good part of the CWA...near 80 at the beaches. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Global deterministic models continue to show discrepancies in their depiction of the approach of the next midlevel trough and potential associated MCS, with GFS continuing to present the more progressive solution which shows the system offshore by Wednesday morning. Regardless of the system`s exact mesoscale evolution, the potential complex of storms is likely to be at the very least on a diminishing trend as we head into Wednesday with lingering shower and storm activity associated with the passing shortwave possible into the afternoon. With upper ridging building back into the South Central CONUS as we head into the end of the week, shower/storm chances will be limited by the presence of a subsidence inversion. Any developing storms are likely to be largely isolated in nature and tied to diurnal boundaries (sea breeze, bay breeze, etc). As such, have maintained the low PoP forecast for Thurs - Sat. Things become quite a bit more uncertain heading into next weekend as global models continue to show the development of a weak area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula/Bay of Campeche towards the end of the weekend. The exact track of this potential system is still hard to pinpoint and will depend heavily on its genesis location and the exact positioning of the aforementioned ridge as we head into the beginning of next week. Still, it`s something to keep an eye on as we could see more widespread rainfall as early as Sunday as the system potentially pushes into the Central Gulf. Temperatures will remain on a generally increasing trend over the course of the remainder of the week as the return of stronger ridging allows for daily high temperatures to approach the upper 90s. Still, with a weaker and more easterly prevailing surface low, slight decreases to the surface dew point are likely to keep heat indicies below advisory levels for the time being. Expect some local variability in observed temperatures at times depending on the exact development locations of scattered storms. Cady && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Another round of patchy fog/low clouds this morning should mix out sooner than later...even with the light onshore winds in place. As we head into this afternoon, look for scattered showers and storms to develop initially along the bay/sea breezes (near to the coast) late this morning. Activity should pick up along/near a stationary front just north of the CWFA by this afternoon...with some of this development moving near our northern terminals. So, will keeping a mention of VCTS/VCSH in for most locations until sunset or so. The bulk of things should weaken this evening, with patchy fog and low clouds possible once again (especially for areas that do get rain). As it currently stands, tomorrow looks a lot like today...but tom- orrow night might be a different story. Stay tuned. 41 && .MARINE... Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Relatively light winds and low seas prevail throughout the duration of the week, with scattered showers and storms remaining in the forecast through at least the first half of the week. A brief shift to east winds is possible on Tuesday as a surface boundary approaches the coast. There remains a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the potential development of a low pressure system in the Bay of Campeche over the upcoming weekend, but for the time being it`s something to monitor as our next source of more widespread rainfall. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 91 74 90 72 / 30 20 20 30 Houston (IAH) 92 75 91 73 / 40 30 30 20 Galveston (GLS) 88 79 87 79 / 30 10 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Cady AVIATION...41 MARINE...Cady