796
FXUS64 KHGX 240421
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1121 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Today`s observed weather conditions (as of the writing of this
discussion) should be generally characteristic of the upcoming
week, albeit with the potential for scattered thunderstorms on a
slight increasing trend over the course of the week. Observed
highs at the 3 PM hour have generally settled in the lower to mid
90s, with mid-70s dew points pushing apparent temperature values
into the 100-105 range for most locations. Some airmass/diurnally
driven thunderstorms have continued to move inland off of the Gulf
through the afternoon, though any storms that have developed have
(and will remain) short-lived and have produced mostly
inconsequential rainfall totals. Overnight lows, aided by light
but nonetheless steady WAA, should remain mostly in the upper 70s
with variable winds prevailing.

Mid/upper ridging will continue to dominate the synoptic picture
as we head into next week, allowing for a very slight increase in
maximum temps over the course of the next several days as the
ridge continues to strengthen over the South Central CONUS.
Daytime highs tomorrow should reach the mid 90s, which, combined
with mid-70s dew points, will produce conditions just under what
would generally necessitate a Heat Advisory. Another slight
chance of diurnally driven showers/storms remains in the forecast,
but rainfall amounts will once again be minimal. Another night of
mid to upper 70s lows is also expected tomorrow.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The extended period will continue to be dominated by upper ridging
over the South Central CONUS, providing the Greater Houston area
with a typical, relatively benign summertime pattern. The main
concern during this time will be the prospect for excessive heat,
with maximum Heat Index values expected to approach the 110 mark
for many locations over the course of the week while WBGT may
reach black flag conditions at times. Given this, it`s likely that
some or all of the area will be under a Heat Advisory at times
throughout the week. In general, daytime highs in the mid to
occasionally upper 90s with mid-70s dew points can be expected
each afternoon with light to moderate SE winds.

Daily chances for airmass/diurnally driven storms remain in the
forecast, mainly focused along the advancing sea/bay breeze and
with chances highest along and south of the I-10 corridor. While a
few storms may occur for any individual location over the course
of the week, measurable rainfall amounts will be fairly minimal.
The prevailing ridge will weaken slightly and shift to the west by
Thursday, allowing an embedded shortwave to potentially trigger
some more widespread storms. However, PoP values generally max out
in he 30-40% range for the time being.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Not much change to the ongoing TAFS. Expecting a few SHRA to begin
near the coast around 12Z, so have a VCSH at GLS. ISO to SCT
SHRA expected further inland late morning and into the aft. Could
see a few patches of brief MVFR fog early morning at LBX, CXO,
and SGR. SE winds will increase to 8-10 kts with heating/mixing,
then subside aft sunset.

Wood


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Generally benign marine conditions are expected over the course of
the upcoming week, with daily thunderstorm chances in the forecast
but overall storm coverage remaining low. Seas will remain on a
diminishing trend, reaching around 2 feet by Tuesday. Winds will
remain out of the southwest, staying below caution criteria
throughout the upcoming week.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  95  75  96 /   0  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  77  95  77  95 /   0  20   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  81  89  81  88 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...Cady