261
FXUS64 KHGX 090854
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
354 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

With onshore winds in place across SE TX, low-level moisture will be
continuing to deepen today and tomorrow. PWs up to 2" are progged as
the pattern persists. The zonal flow aloft could bring some weak dis-
turbances in from the west this afternoon with mainly isolated cove-
rage possible as we recover from the influence of the weekend ridging.
As the mid/upper pattern becomes more N/NW by Mon, rain chances will
be going up as a weak cold front accompanies these disturbances. For
now, will keep POPs in the 20-40% range. Showers/storms should occur
mainly during the daytime hours.

As for temperatures, the SE winds and rain chances will help to keep
highs today and tomorrow in the lower 90s. Lows will be in the lower
to mid 70s for most locations...around 80 at the immediate coast.
41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

With a more zonal midlevel flow regime in place by Tuesday, the
approach of a fairly robust shortwave will have the potential to
bring us our next round of widespread thunderstorm activity later
on Tuesday. Global deterministic models continue to depict the
southeastward propagation of a MCS through the area overnight on
Tuesday into early Wednesday, though there continues to remain a
degree of uncertainty as to exactly how this will play out given
we are still outside the time domain of mesoscale models.
Regardless, with abundant moisture availability and sufficient SB
instability, we`ll continue to need to monitor this time period
for the possibility of some stronger storms. Some additional
diurnally driven activity is possible on Wednesday afternoon
via the sea/bay breeze.

The end of the week will be characterized by a light but
persistent onshore flow, strong moisture availability, and
chances for additional diurnally-driven showers/storms. As such,
low but nonzero PoP values remain present in this morning`s
forecast package. Winds remain fairly light with surface high
pressure nearly overhead.

Temperatures will generally remain in the mid 90s for the duration
of the period, with values on the coast closer to 90. A building
midlevel ridge may push a few locations to the upper 90s on
Saturday. However, dew points near 70 should keep heat index
values from reaching Advisory criteria. Overnight lows should
continue to drop into the mid 70s.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(03Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Patchy fog and low clouds will be possible across portions of SE
Texas overnight. CIGS/VIS could drop to MVFR levels occasionally,
with some locations such as LBX seeing IFR or possibly lower
flight levels during the early morning hours of Sunday. Isolated
showers/storms will also be possible during the afternoon hours on
Sunday. Otherwise VFR conditions and southeasterly winds should
dominate throughout the TAF period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Conditions remain relatively quiet through the duration of the
forecast period with light onshore winds expected to prevail
throughout the remainder of the weekend and through at least the
end of next week. Rain chances return to the forecast beginning
later today, with chances of shower and thunderstorm development
through at least mid week. While a significant severe weather
event is not expected, any locally stronger storms that develop
could produce the occasional strong wind gust.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)  91  75  93  75 /  10  10  40  10
Galveston (GLS)  87  79  87  79 /  10  10  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cady