Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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451 FXUS64 KHGX 230811 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 311 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Ridging in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere should bring warmer conditions into the beginning of next week. Abundant moisture and weak capping could still allow for isolated showers/storms to develop with afternoon heating, though regardless coverage will be fairly limited. Minor coastal flooding remains a concern today for the Bolivar Peninsula, with water levels expected to reach 3.5 ft above MLLW later this morning with high tide. Coastal flood advisories remain in effect across the Bolivar Peninsula until 11 PM Tonight. Continue to exercise caution while traversing these areas to allow waters to recede from any impacted roadways. Highs will be in the upper 80s to upper 90s on Sunday and Monday, with lows in the 70s to lower 80s near the coast. Heat indices are expected to reach 101-107 during the afternoon hours. While a few isolated spots could reach 108 or more, it doesn`t appear to be widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory for Today. Monday will also be borderline as well. The heat risk through early next week will be moderate (3/5) for most people participating in low-impact, leisurely outdoor activities. However, those participating in strenuous outdoor activities may feel major (4/5) heat stress. If you plain to spent time outdoors, remember to drink plenty of fluids, wear lightweight clothing and avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 There will not be much of a pattern change through next weekend, so you know what that means: hot and humid weather persists. A ridge of high pressure aloft and moist southerly flow at the surface will help keep high temperatures mid to upper 90s all week long for most inland locations and upper 80s to low 90s along the immediate coast. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s for inland locations, and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Factor in the humidity during the daytime hours, max heat index values will be 105-110 range all week, so Heat Advisories will likely be needed. The one break from the heat will be the daily chances of sea breeze/daytime heating induced showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Where ever these storms pop up, they will likely help cool the temperatures down by at least a few degrees. PWATs will be around 1.5-1.8", so a quick downpour with these storms cannot be out ruled either. Fowler && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR, virtually SKC, with ESE to SE winds. Winds light early, becoming 5-10 kts afternoon, then light again after sunset. Potential for patchy fog pre-dawn, and an isolated shower/storm afternoon...however, probability of either is too low at any TAF sites to merit a mention explicitly. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through the week. Some lingering seas to 6ft will persist for the offshore waters this morning, but then seas of 2-4ft will prevail through the rest of the week. The high risk of strong rip currents will continue today with minor coastal flooding possible along Bolivar Island at high tide. There will be a daily chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms during the late morning through the afternoon. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 95 76 96 76 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 95 77 96 77 / 10 0 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 81 / 20 0 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for TXZ439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....Fowler AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...Fowler