024
FXUS64 KHGX 202030
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
330 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Seeing scattered showers generally near I-10 and southward. Likely
to see isolated showers develop further north during the remainder
of the aft as well. Could see an isolated thunderstorm, but
expecting mostly shower activity. Overnight and early tomorrow,
expecting isolated to scattered showers offshore and near the coast.

Precipitable water values will continue to lower from the north
tomorrow, but still have sufficient moisture levels to support
scattered showers across coastal areas early tomorrow and then
scattered activity up to about I-10 during the late
morning/afternoon hours. Min temps tonight are expected to be in the
lower 70s north and upper 70s coast with max temps tomorrow a little
warmer than today, reaching the mid 90s well inland and mid-upper
80s along the coast.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

With rain chances on the decline over the weekend, temperatures will
be on the rise! Expect temperatures over the weekend to top out in
the low to mid 90s with some across the Piney Woods topping out in
the upper 90s. A mid-level high will continue to slide in from the
northeast over the weekend initially bringing in a brief period of
drier air. So, we won`t have to really worry about the heat index
values...yet...that`ll be next week`s issue. Moisture begins to
increase on Sunday as our next little tropical friend develops in
the Bay of Campeche and moves into the northeastern Mexico. We are
not expecting any impacts nearly as substantial as with what
occurred with Alberto. For a deeper dive into the next potential
tropical system, see the "Tropical" section down below. I can
mention up here though that the pressure gradient won`t be as
tight, so we won`t see increased winds/seas as a result of this
system. It`s main impact on us will be increased moisture that
leads to PW values rising above 2.0" through midweek that will
elevate our rain chances.

Another consequence of the increased moisture will be the elevated
heat index values due to the higher dew points. Air temperatures
will still be in the low to mid 90s early next week, then
transitioning to solid mid 90s by midweek. When you factor in the
elevated humidity with those temperature, we`ll see heat index
values well into the 100s throughout most of next week. Our criteria
for a Heat Advisory is 108F or greater, and early indications show
that we will at least be flirting with that criteria. On the plus
side, daily rain chances will continue so maybe you`ll win the
weather lottery with a cooling shower/storm!

Batiste/Ellis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Still seeing MVFR ceilings at central and coastal TAF sites.
Expecting cloud bases to lift above 3k feet in 1 to 2 hours
inland, however, may keep MVFR ceilings at LBX and GLS this aft.
Scattered SHRA from HOU to SGR will continue and then expect some
expansion to the north with further heating this aft. Don`t
expect much inland SHRA activity once we lose heating this eve.
Drier air will be in place tomorrow, so less SHRA around on Fri.
TSRA chances look really low, so left TSRA out of TAFs.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

8-12 foot seas and 20-25 knot winds will persist over the Gulf
waters into tonight, but will be on a gradual downward trend into
Friday. A Small Craft Advisory continues for the bays and Gulf
waters through Friday morning, but may be extended for the offshore
waters if seas take longer to recede. The worst of the coastal
flooding looks to have peaked Thursday morning with water levels
during the next high tide cycle on Friday morning being generally
between 3-4 feet above MLLW. There may be isolated instances of
water levels rising above 4 feet MLLW (especially around High
Island). The Coastal Flood Warning that is in effect till 7pm
Thursday evening will be downgraded to a Coastal Flood Advisory that
will be in effect till 7pm Friday evening.

Winds and seas will continue on a downward trend going into the
weekend. Easterly to southeasterly winds may be elevated enough over
the weekend for intermittent periods of caution flags. Eyes will be
on the southwestern Gulf once again over the weekend into early next
week with the potential for a tropical system to develop in a
similar location to Alberto and also take a similar path. However,
not expecting much if any impacts from this system, but mariners are
advised to keep up to date with the latest forecast and tropical
updates.

Batiste/Ellis


&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

In the wake of Tropical Depression Alberto, a new disturbance may
form in the Bay Campeche. With the developing upper-level ridge,
model guidance suggests that this disturbance will take a similar
path into the eastern coast of Mexico. However, with the smaller
wind field and the more contained nature of this system, it is
unlikely that we will experience effects as drastic as we`ve seen in
the past few days. Some tropical moisture is expected to impact us
and may elevate rain chances, but winds and seas are expected to
remain on the calmer side of things. Even with this new friend, we
remain cautiously optimistic that we won`t be effected by two
tropical systems in a week :).

Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts for any
changes/updates from the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov.

Ellis/Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  93  73  94 /  20  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  75  92  75  94 /  20  30  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  81  88  81  88 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-313-
     335>338-436>439.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for TXZ214-313-335>338-436>439.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 7 PM CDT this evening
     through late tonight for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...Batiste