743
FXUS66 KHNX 211033
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
333 AM PDT Fri Jun 21 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Temperatures will rise 10 to 15 degrees above average this
weekend with widespread triple digit afternoon highs across the
lower elevations. A Heat Advisory is in effect from Saturday
through Monday morning.

2. There is a 40 to 75 percent probability for a high temperature
of 105 degrees or above across most of the San Joaquin Valley on
Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite loops show mainly clear skies prevailing with just some
thin cirrus over Yosemite NP exiting towards Nevada. Temperatures
on Thursday topped out right around climatological averages again
with lower 90s across the San Joaquin Valley. Upper trough across
the region will weaken further today allowing high temperatures to
climb to around 4 to 7 degrees above average this afternoon. Highs
will mainly be in the upper 90s with probabilities for a max temp
of 100 degrees at 21% in Bakersfield and 16% in Fresno and Hanford.

The strong upper ridge causing the heat wave across the northeast
US will build westward across Texas and the desert southwest this
weekend. Temperatures will soar into the triple digits across the
lower elevations...generally below 2500 feet, with highs forecast
to be 10 to 15 degrees above average. Here are probabilities for
a high temperature of 105 degrees or above for some of the larger
population areas in the San Joaquin Valley.

        Sat      Sun
Merced          41%      31%
Madera          51%      41%
Fresno          71%      76%
Reedley    51%     31%
Lemoore    61%     41%
Hanford         66%      56%
Visalia         66%      56%
Porterville     71%      76%
Delano          76%      66%
Bakersfield  76%  76%

These conditions will create a widespread major heat risk across
the lower elevations. Not only because of the excessive daytime
temperatures but also due to overnight temperatures remain very
warm, especially in urban areas. The probability for a low temp
of 75 degrees or above Sunday morning is 81% in Bakersfield and
51% in Fresno, due to the urban heat island effect. Probability
on Monday morning drops to 51% and 21% respectively. Therefore,
a Heat Advisory remains in effect for the San Joaquin Valley,
West Side Hills, Lower Sierra Foothills, and Kern River Valley
from 11 AM Saturday through 11 AM PDT Monday.

Temperatures are expected to nudge slightly lower early next as
the ridge remains over the Four Corners region. Max temperatures
across the SJ Valley are generally forecast to range from 100 to
105 degrees Monday through Wednesday, around 7-10 degrees above
average. Cluster analysis favors the ridge weakening late in the
week as an upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest. Highs
are forecast to lower to around 2 to 5 degrees above average on
Friday with probabilities for 100 degrees or above falling below
50 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA
interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Monday for
CAZ300>317-319-321-332.

&&

$$

DCH

weather.gov/hanford