140
FXUS66 KHNX 161032
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
332 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 5 PM this
afternoon. There is a 45 percent probability of 3 inches of snow
or more for Tioga Pass as snow levels fall to 7500 feet.

2. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 5 PM this afternoon through
5 AM Tuesday morning for Eastern Kern County.

3. There is a 15 to 40 percent probability of 0.05 inches or
more of rain in the San Joaquin Valley north of Kern County
today. A second upper level trough will slide through on
Wednesday and Thursday bringing an additional chance for
precipitation to the area.

4. Temperatures across Interior Central California will be 15 to
20 degrees below normal today and will remain below average
through THursday before a weekend warmup.

5. There is a 40 to 50 percent probability of setting new
record low maximum temperature records at Hanford, Bakersfield,
Madera, and Merced this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An strong, deep, and cool upper low is moving into Central
California early this morning. This system looks to bring
mountain snow to the higher passes above 7500 feet today with a
probability of 45 percent of 3 inches of snow or more. The other
impact areas is the Mojave Slopes of the Kern County Desert
where a 40 to 75 percent probability of wind gusts exceeding 35
mph exists late this afternoon through the overnight hours. A
noteworthy fact is that there is a 40 to 55 percent probability
of setting new record low maximum temperatures at select
locations across the San Joaquin Valley today.

Tuesday The strong upper low exits into the Northern Rockies and
leaves behind a trough to keep temperatures on the cool side.
Another strong shortwave is diving into the trough late in the
period. The probability of temperatures remain below 80 degrees
ranges from 25 to 75 percent for the San Joaquin Valley.

Wednesday the shortwave deepens into another upper low and by
evening reaches the Bay Area. This system is warmer for the
Sierra Nevada with the cooler upper level temperatures moving
south and west of the Sierra. This will keep the snow at the
very highest elevations. The system is a bit more dynamic and
provides a better probability of thunder for the region.
Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning the probability of
thunder is 5 to 10 percent for the San Joaquin Valley and 10 to
20 percent for the Sierra Nevada north of Tulare County. The
probability of greater than 0.05 of an inch of precipitation
for the San Joaquin Valley late Wednesday into Thursday ranges
from 35 to 75 percent. The upper low weakens and slows down over
Central California on Thursday. The probability of temperatures
remaining below 80 ranges from 35 to 70 percent for the San
Joaquin Valley.

Friday the upper low lifts into the Great Basin and heights
begin to rise in the upper levels this will bring a drying and
warming trend to the region. The probability of temperatures
exceeding the benchmark of 92 degrees for normal highs is less
than 10 percent on Friday, 15 to 55 percent on Saturday, 50 to
60 percent on Sunday, and 60 to 70 percent next Monday. As we
get into the weekend the spread of temperatures at any point
location is approaching ten degrees, for example Fresno, the
range on Monday is from 89 to 99. The primary issue is the
persistent upper low over the southeastern US and its
development and progression that will allow or deny the Pacific
Ridge to translate further inland for warmer temperatures for
California.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings before 06Z AFT MVFR CIGS probable over the Sierra
with isolated IFR/Mountain Obscurations (for more detailed
information visit aviationweather.gov). Over the Valley CIGS
ABV MVFR through the period. Areas of MVFR and local IFR
visibilities near wildfires.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  09/15/2024 15:01
EXPIRES: 09/16/2024 23:59
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ337>339.
Winter Weather Advisory above 8000 feet until 5 PM PDT this
afternoon for CAZ323-326>328.
&&

$$

Operational Products...Proton
DSS....................DCH

weather.gov/hanford