Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
467 FXUS66 KHNX 230812 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 112 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warming trend will continue with a 40 to 70 percent probability of temperatures reaching the triple digits in the San Joaquin Valley on Tuesday. 2. A cooling trend will take place on Wednesday and Thursday, but temperatures will remain above normal for the rest of the week and next weekend. 3. A dry week for the region is expected for all of the Interior of Central California. Relative Humidities are expected to fall into the single digits during the afternoon hours for Eastern Kern County. The rest of the areas`s Relative Humidity values will fall into the teens and 20s. Overnight recoveries will be poor for the desert and higher elevations while moderate for the valley bottom. && .DISCUSSION...A large dry upper ridge centered near 135W will build inland into the PAC NW and Norcal today interacting with a weak upper low off the Socal coast producing an offshore flow pattern across central CA today. The strengthening ridge to our north will result in a continuation of the ongoing warming trend across our area. NBM indicating the PoE of 95 DEG F in the San Joaquin Valley is 80 to 95 percent today. The ridge will build inland into the Great Basin on Tuesday with the upper flow turning more southerly with heights and thicknesses continuing to rise across our area. The PoE of 95 DEG F in the San Joaquin Valley rises to near 100 percent while the PoE of 100 DEG F rises to 40 to 70 percent on Tuesday. A series of shortwave troughs will then push through the PAC NW Wednesday through next weekend, with with the upper flow pattern blocked by an upper low over the deep south and a potentially strong tropcial system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week. As a result, these shortwave systems will not be able to dig too far southward over the western CONUS. Therefore dry weather will continue across our area for the remainder of the week. While a noticable cooling trend will take place across our area on Wednesday and Thursday, the PoE of 95 DEG F will lower to 10 percent or less across most of the San Joaquin Valley by Thursday. Temperatures are expected to rebound upward slightly on Friday and Saturday before a stronger shortwave trough pushes eastward across the PAC NW next Sunday which will result in another cooling trend for our area. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ public/aviation...DAS idss...MM weather.gov/hanford