Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
174 FXUS66 KHNX 142100 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. High temperatures across the San Joaquin Valley will hover between 95 and 100 degrees today before a cooling trend brings temperatures closer to climatological averages for the weekend. Monday temperatures are forecast to be around 4 to 7 degrees below normal. 2. Snowmelt from the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, will continue to result in dangerously cold and fast flows along rivers and waterways. 3. Strong wind gusts will develop along the Mojave Desert slopes each late afternoon through overnight from this evening through Monday. Afternoon and evening breezes will develop across the San Joaquin Valley with locally gusty conditions near the passes of the West Side Mountains this evening through Monday. 4. The gusty winds coupled with low relative humidity will bring elevated fire weather concerns to the Kern County mountains and desert and the San Joaquin Valley Friday through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... A sunny and warm day across Central California as temperatures quickly approach the 90s. 24 Hour temperature trend does show a slight rise today as mid to upper 90s will be observed later this afternoon. Yet, the slight warming of temperatures will be short-lived as satellite imagery and short range ensemble analysis show a disturbance cooling-down the district this weekend. Currently, the disturbance is over extreme Northern California and expected to drop closer to the region this evening. While the disturbance lacks moisture, cooler air will filter into the region which in-turn will support strong winds. Therefore, a High Wind Warning has been issued for the Eastern- Slopes of the Tehachapi Range adjacent to the Mojave Desert. A stronger disturbance will cross the region later this weekend and extend the cool-down and high winds through the early part of next week. 100 degree temperatures across the San Joaquin Valley will have to wait until the end of next week. High-Res Short-Range Ensemble mean temperature and wind analysis show the on-set of cooler air surging into Central California closer to 6 PM PDT and after peak heating. Therefore, while cooling will begin tonight, temperatures have a high probability (50-80%) of reaching the mid to upper 90s. Afterward, winds will steadily increase tonight as speeds across the Eastern Slopes of Kern County have a 60% to 90% Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching and surpassing 50 mph. A High Wind Warning is in place to cover the hazards due to high winds. A much deeper and strong disturbance this then expected to cross the region over the weekend and re-enforce the cooling and windy conditions across the region. Between Sunday and Monday temperatures will see a drop in temperatures to near normal and below normal, respectively. From Today, temperatures will see a 10 to almost 15 degree drop. With PoE struggling to show percentage values of reaching 90 degree any greater then 25% on Monday, confidence is high temperatures will remain below normal. Longer-range ensemble upper-air analysis maintains a cooler temperature solution for much of the period before changes gears next Friday. Yet, confidence the next Heat-Wave is low as Ensemble Cluster Analysis minimal hints toward a strong ridge solution. Current PoE of reaching 105 degrees remains mostly below 20 percent. While PoE of reach 100 degree may rise to 40% to 55%, the pattern is not set-up for a good heat-wave. Therefore, will see how the Ensemble Cluster Analysis evolves during the next few days before messaging out the return of hot temperatures. At this point, Day 8 (Saturday 6/22) may be more favorable. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ338. High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Monday night for CAZ338. && $$ Operations.....Molina IDSS/Support...JPK weather.gov/hanford