809
FXUS66 KHNX 141026
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
326 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. High temperatures across the San Joaquin Valley will hover
between 95 and 100 degrees through Friday before a cooling trend
brings temperatures closer to climatological averages for the
weekend. Monday temperatures are forecast to be around 4 to 7
degrees below normal.

2. Snowmelt from the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada,
will continue to result in dangerously cold and fast flows along
rivers and waterways.

3. Strong wind gusts will develop along the Mojave Desert
slopes each late afternoon through overnight from Friday through
Monday. Afternoon and evening breezes will develop across the
San Joaquin Valley with locally gusty conditions near the passes
of the West Side Mountains Friday through Monday.

4. The gusty winds coupled with low relative humidity will
bring elevated fire weather concerns to the Kern County
mountains and desert and the San Joaquin Valley Friday through
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Zonal to slightly Northwest flow will continue through the
weekend into early next week. The primary concern will be Kern
County Desert and Mojave Slopes winds as the pattern will
feature low pressure to the east and Pacific High pressure. This
sets up the surface gradient featuring strong wind gusts.

Today and Tonight the surface gradient is roughly 7-9 MB from
Bakersfield to Vegas that supports strong wind gusts for the
Mojave Slopes. The short term ensembles have 60 to 80 percent
probability to exceed 55 mph during the late evening into the
early morning hours. This lines up very well with the current
highlights out for a high wind event. On the temperature side
for today another above normal day across the region. The San
Joaquin Valley PoE of 95 degrees ranges from 61 to 86 percent.
Then the PoE of 100 degrees ranges from 6 to 36 percent.

Saturday the pressure gradient continues with a 5-8 MB
Bakersfield to Vegas line. This will have similar probabilities
to make warning criteria as Friday nights event. The High Wind
Watch seems to cover the threat well. Turning to temperatures
the trend is downward. The PoE of 95 degrees is down to near 0
percent north of Fresno and 16 to 26 percent Fresno and south in
the Valley. Even the PoE of 90 degrees ranges from 41 percent in
the north to 81 percent in the south.

Sunday and Monday a strong short wave in the upper flow moves
across the Pacific Northwest lowering upper level heights over
the Golden State. Temperatures are anticipated to fall below
normal. The PoE of 90 degrees falls to 11 to 26 percent across
the Valley. The PoE of 85 degrees is only 61 to 81 percent. The
threat of more Mojave Slope wind products has continued elevated
probabilities.

Tuesday through next Friday expect a warming trend across the
area as upper heights continue to rise even with general
troughiness across the western CONUS. There is some hope for
those that do not like it hot. The Cluster analysis does have
some disagreement that could course correct from the extremes.
However, with that said, NBM probabilities into next weekend of
exceeding 110 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley range from 16
to 26 percent. Next weekend will have to be monitored for the
possibilities of Excessive Heat in the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  06/13/2024 14:15
EXPIRES: 06/14/2024 23:59
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT
Saturday for CAZ338.
High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Monday
night for CAZ338.
&&

$$

public/aviation/fire weather...Proton
IDSS....AS

weather.gov/hanford