Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
615 FXUS66 KHNX 271953 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1253 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Gusty winds will continue through Friday morning along the Mojave Desert Slopes. A Wind Advisory remains in effect from through Friday morning. 2. Temperatures will cool slightly today, but remain above normal. 3. Maximum temperatures are expected to rise back up into the triple digits over the lower elevations by Saturday and potentially above 105 degrees by next Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... This weekend features general trough over the Golden State. Then a ridge builds in for the holiday week bringing in some high impact weather to the region. This afternoon through Friday the primary concerns will be active fires and Mojave Slope winds. The Mojave Slope wind gusts to 45 mph probability of exceedance is 80 to near 100 percent for the town site of Mojave and Highways 58 and 14 in the region. The wind looks to tapper by 8 am on Friday. Temperatures are expected to remain below 100 with probabilities of exceedance (PoE) of remains below 30%. Saturday and Sunday the PoE of 100 degrees increases across the region with values increasing to above 60 percent. Otherwise, impacts will be minor other than fire weather concerns. Monday through the rest of the holiday week brings another heat wave to the region. The confidence is building on a significant heat wave for Central California by mid-week lasting into the holiday weekend. The probability is increasing for above 105 degree temperatures. However, the impact based Heat Risk is in the major category for most of the San Joaquin Valley and Extreme in the Fresno metro area and urban areas of Visalia and Bakersfield. && .AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibility in smoke in the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills south of Kings Canyon. Wind gusts above 35 KT possible along the Mojave Desert Slopes producing local blowing dust. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions continue for the region with light wind. The fine fuels remain an issue for ongoing fires. There is no probability in the foreseeable future of additional thunderstorm activity or strong wind. Relative humidity values will remain low and temperatures will be on the rise starting this weekend into next. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... Moderate for Merced and Madera counties. Unhealthy for Fresno, Kings, Tulare, Kern, and Sequoia National Park. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Friday for CAZ338. && $$ public/aviation/fire weather...Proton IDSS....AS weather.gov/hanford