Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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915 FXUS64 KHUN 181503 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1003 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 1003 CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The forecast for the Tennessee Valley for the most part is on track with dry weather continuing, and high temperatures rising into the mid 80s. An area of moisture associated with a weak area of low pressure which was heading eastbound across the Carolinas, was bringing stratus over KY/TN and southward. These Marginal Visual Flight Rules clouds, with cloud bases of 2000-3000 ft AGL have moved across parts of far northern Alabama, with reduced ceilings noted over Fayetteville and Winchester, and Scottsboro. If the progress of these clouds continue, MVFR ceilings are possible around the Huntsville and Quad Cities area in the late morning. A presence of these clouds will keep temperatures on a slightly cooler trend. Should they dissipate quicker than is currently anticipated, we may need to boost them a little. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The main forecast concern will continue to be fog each night with the combination of clear and calm conditions each night and recent rainfall. Will see little change in the overall synoptic pattern as the aforementioned upper low weekend and tracks northeast up the Atlantic coast and upper ridging slowly shifts east. This will result in warming temperatures into the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Upper ridging will center over the Southeast toward the later half of the weekend, and the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain after that. The GFS has trended toward a tropical system developing in the Gulf that could result in more humid conditions along the coastal regions. How far inland that tropical air makes it, if at all, remains in question and have stuck with blended guidance for temps and rain chances at this range. Highs will largely remain in the mid 80s to lower 90s each day through Tuesday, with a low chance (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be on the warm side, largely in the upper 60s which is also a good indicator that we will see increasing moisture into the long term period. Something to watch for in future updates. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Early morning fog has been kept at bay so far this morning, and has been left out of the TAFs due to a narrow window for development and low confidence. However, watching vsbys drop over NE MS, so amendments may be needed if fog begins to form near the KMSL terminal. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with the exception of potential fog tonight. Will monitor forecast trends but leave out of the TAFs for this issuance. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...25