876
FXUS64 KHUN 231738 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 858 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s at present. A line
of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms is also currently
making its way southeast across Kentucky and into Tennessee and
Arkansas. This activity is expected to continue southeast,
bringing low chances (15-25%) of showers and a few storms to our
local area this afternoon. There is low potential for a storm or
two to become strong and produce gusty winds, especially for our
southern middle Tennessee counties; however, confidence in
occurrence is low. Showers/storms may dampen afternoon
temperatures a bit for the areas they move over; however, it will
be another hot day for the Tennessee Valley.

Highs this afternoon are forecast to rise into the lower to mid
90s east of I-65 and into the mid to upper 90s west. "Feels like"
temperatures will be higher, reaching between the mid to upper 90s
east of I-65 and in the upper 90s to around 103 degrees west
later this afternoon as well. Although this does not meet Heat
Advisory criteria, we still recommend caution. If heading outside
for outdoor activities or work, please remember heat safety! Wear
loose-fitting, light-colored clothing, take frequent breaks in the
shade, and stay hydrated! Also, take caution for your pets as
well! Be cautious of the hot pavement, make sure they have ample
water and shade, and limit their time outdoors.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The thunderstorms and front will shift southeast through the
evening hours, and should exit to our southeast by 06-08Z. High
pressure at the surface will build into the central and lower
Appalachians late Monday into Tuesday, with 5h and 8h ridging also
shifting into the OH and TN valleys. A combination of drier air
advection and deep mixing will drop dew points into the lower to
middle 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons before moisture advection
increases Wednesday. Hot air temperatures are still forecast
through the period, with middle 90s Monday and middle to upper
90s Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A shortwave and possibly MCS in the central Plains will arrive in
the TN valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, which could factor
into our temperature forecast which right now says lower to middle
90s. However, PoPs will be increasing to the 30-50% range
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Although sustained large scale
heavy rain is not foreseen at this point, a few areas of 0.25-0.50
inch totals look obtainable. This will be followed by a weakening
frontal passage Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Notice I
didn`t even mention the word cold. Southerly low level flow will
develop Friday into Saturday, bringing sustained higher dew points
in the 70s along with the hot temperatures, thus increasing the
potential for excessive heat index values and risk into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions will largely prevail through Monday. A broken line
of showers/storms is currently moving over Tennessee and may hold
together to bring low shower/storm chances (15-30%) to the
terminals later this afternoon and into this evening. No rain is
then anticipated overnight through Monday morning. Some patchy fog
development is possible overnight; however, confidence in
occurrence at the terminals was too low to include in the TAFs at
this time. Northwest winds between 5-10 knots this afternoon will
persist through early this evening before becoming light and
variable tonight. Light north winds are then anticipated by mid-
morning on Monday.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...26