573
FXUS64 KHUN 230945
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
445 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Basically a persistence forecast today, with highs back in the
middle 90s this afternoon. Thorough mixing will drop dew points
into the lower 60s in our southeast counties, while remaining in
the upper 60s to around 70 in our northwest counties as westerly
flow advects low level moisture east ward in advance of a cool
front. The front is presently in northern IL through central MO.
The front will drop southeast rather quickly today, and should be
in middle and southwest TN late this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the front,
and drop southeast into southern middle TN and far northwest AL
late this afternoon. Modest shear of 20-30kt and MUCAPE of
1500-2500 j/kg will be sufficient for a severe storm or two,
especially just to our northwest. However, will not totally rule
out a few into early this evening in our forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The thunderstorms and front will shift southeast through the
evening hours, and should exit to our southeast by 06-08Z. High
pressure at the surface will build into the central and lower
Appalachians late Monday into Tuesday, with 5h and 8h ridging also
shifting into the OH and TN valleys. A combination of drier air
advection and deep mixing will drop dew points into the lower to
middle 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons before moisture advection
increases Wednesday. Hot air temperatures are still forecast
through the period, with middle 90s Monday and middle to upper
90s Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A shortwave and possibly MCS in the central Plains will arrive in
the TN valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, which could factor
into our temperature forecast which right now says lower to middle
90s. However, PoPs will be increasing to the 30-50% range
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Although sustained large scale
heavy rain is not foreseen at this point, a few areas of 0.25-0.50
inch totals look obtainable. This will be followed by a weakening
frontal passage Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Notice I
didn`t even mention the word cold. Southerly low level flow will
develop Friday into Saturday, bringing sustained higher dew points
in the 70s along with the hot temperatures, thus increasing the
potential for excessive heat index values and risk into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast. Isolated TS will be
possible (20% or less prob) from 22Z-02Z in far northwest AL and
southern middle TN, and across the rest of north AL and southern
middle TN from 02-06Z. Since there is low confidence, have left TS
out of the KMSL or KHSV TAFs at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17