248
FXUS64 KHUN 210139
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
839 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 839 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

No major adjustments were necessary to the forecast. High pressure
translating west across the area will suppress winds to near calm
and erode cloud cover after the sun sets. With clear skies and
calm winds, tonight will provide a decent opportunity for
radiational cooling. Current forecast brings temps down to the
high 60s to low 70s. The arrival of slightly lower dew points with
the easterly flow associated with high pressure should limit wide
spread fog development. That being said, some areas of patchy fog
are possible with best chances east of I-65 in fog prone areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The big forecast feature will continue to the be the large area of
high pressure that settles southwest into the Tennessee Valley
through the weekend. A couple models to show some 700 mb and 300
mb higher relative humidity values, possibly associated with some
cloud cover near the pre-frontal trough axis mentioned earlier
that doesn`t move much. Otherwise, we would likely be looking at
more widespread upper 90s Friday through Sunday. Also, the ridge
itself will slowly weaken as the center of it shifts further
southeast through that period.

Having said that, widespread lower to mid 90s still look probable
with some upper 90s possible by Sunday. With dewpoints in the 65
to 70 degree range, heat index values will likely climb above 100
degrees, but just shy of 105 degrees. Still be aware and careful
if working outdoors and stay hydrated.

If this cloud cover does not pan out, then temperatures could be a
few degrees warmer than the current forecast. This would likely
push heat index values into Advisory criteria if this occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Latest extended range models indicate that this area of high
pressure continues to shift WSW and centered across AZ/NM at the
by Sunday night. Latest guidance shows precipitation ahead of an
approaching front staying north of the area until the evening
hours on Sunday. However, enough cloud cover may make it into the
area in the mid/late afternoon hours to produce enough cloud cover
to keep highs a bit lower than previously thought. Highs should
still make it into the 95 to 98 degree range in most locations.
Low chance PoP (20-30%) was kept in the forecast starting Sunday
evening as the front moves into the area. This front weakens and
slows down on Monday morning. Despite that kept a 20 PoP in the
forecast on Monday. Due to expected cloud cover expect highs to be
tempered slightly, but still should reach the lower to mid 90s.
With a more moisture boundary layer with the front still departing
the area, heat index values may reach 105 degrees in a few more
locations.

During the period from Tuesday-Wednesday, guidance suggests that
the frontal boundary will begin to lift northeastward in response
to another northern stream trough and related surface low moving
eastward across Ontario/Quebec. The introduction of light SW
flow/richer low-level moisture, coupled with less influence from
the subtropical ridge aloft, should allow for a greater coverage
of afternoon/evening showers and storms both days, along with
slightly cooler afternoon high temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals for the duration of
the TAF period. The scattered lower cloud deck will erode as the
sun sets with clear skies and light and variable winds developing
overnight through the day tomorrow.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...RAD