Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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319 FXUS64 KHUN 170445 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1145 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 853 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A few lingering showers with a low-medium chance of producing lightning are ongoing in NE AL as a response to earlier diurnal heating. This activity is expected to decrease over the next 1-2 hours as rain chances subside overnight. Temperatures have dropped into the low to mid 80s so far this evening and will continue to decrease during the overnight hours into the upper 60s to mid 70s as cloud cover builds in from the southeast. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The center of the ridge will become more displaced to the north and east of the area on Monday and subsequently temperatures may run a couple degrees lower -- with highs peaking in the low to mid 90s. However, with lower 70s dewpoints remaining in place, peak heat indices in the 97 to 103 range will be common once again. Thus, those most vulnerable to heat should take extra precautions and avoid being outdoors during peak heating of the day. Diurnally driven "pulse" convection will once again be possible once again during the mid/late afternoon hours, before dissipating with the setting sun. The mid/upper ridge to the northeast will begin to build back into the area, providing enough subsidence to suppress convection for Tuesday. Mostly sunny and dry conditions will prevail with highs running a just a tad lower in the lower 90s in most locations. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Summer-like warmth will continue over much of the southeast and eastern Lower-48, as strong upper level ridging becomes a controlling feature for our sensible weather. This upper ridge should be centered over the coastal Mid Atlantic and New England with maximum heights around 597 decameters. The ridge will strengthen even more as we go through second half of the week, peaking at 600 decameters from Wednesday into late Thursday. The presence of the ridge although located more to our NE, should be close enough to suppress convection, due to warm temperatures aloft and subsidence that occurs under strong areas of high pressure. Juneteenth/Wednesday should feature more clouds than sun with highs rising to around 90, which is close to seasonable norms. Overall atmospheric moisture over this region should decrease Wed night, with lows around 70. Thursday, and the first day of Summer (which occurs around 351 PM CDT) should come in style with highs rising into the low/mid 90s. A tad warmer is expected on Friday with highs in the mid 90s. Corresponding heat index values on Juneteenth should range close to the air temperatures in the Wed-Fri timeframe. Low temps in this period should cool into the upper 60s to lower 70s. A system of tropical origins could move over the SE coast (north Florida to South Carolina) in the Thu/Fri timeframe. Output from the various model camps are uncertain with timing and strength with this feature. The GFS was the fastest and further south solution with it coming ashore Thu, while the ECMWF was more over the GA/SC coast Thu night, and the Canadian over the SC coast Fri and the weakest depiction. In any case, moisture from the tropics will move across the Tennessee Valley late Friday into Saturday. Strong daytime heating Sat with highs in the mid 90s and heat index values to 101 will produce a more unstable environment. There appears to be enough moisture to help a few showers and thunderstorms form Sat afternoon over the entire area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 With mid/high clouds in place over much of the area, VFR conds are generally expected into the daytime hrs Mon. A few shra/tsra are then possible Mon afternoon, especially near the KMSL terminal, and a PROB30 group has been maintained later in the TAF period. Light/var winds will also turn south around 7-8kt Mon morning. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC SHORT TERM....AMP LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...09