029
FXUS64 KHUN 081626
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 933 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A decaying MCS continues to push eastward across AR/TN this
morning with some leading showers attempting to enter into NW AL.
CAM guidance suggests this entire complex should remain to our
north as it dissipates. However, given some light returns popping
up on radar this morning have added a very low chance (10%) of a
shower the rest of this morning into the early afternoon. The one
noticeable impact from this complex will be an increase in high
clouds. Otherwise, most of the area remains dry today with
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints in the upper
50s to lower 60s will once again make for a nice Summer afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

By tonight, the SSW flow will restore a warm moist air mass with
lows in the high 60s in place. Sunday looks to be our next chance
for rain and storms however CAMs have yet to converge on a
solution. Two periods of rain and storms appear possible. Early
Sunday morning an additional shortwave will move through with an MCS
likely going on to our NW. Models disagree on the southern extent
and eventual dissipation of the MCS. A likely scenario seems the
MCS will track just north of us with some shower and storm
activity possible north of the TN river through mid morning. At a
minimum, cloud cover will increase through the mid morning hours.

Redevelopment of rain and storms looks possible Sunday afternoon
into the evening with the passage of a cold front. Sunday
afternoon storms will be highly contingent on the behavior and
presence of any morning storms and cloud cover. If the MCS does
track a little further south resulting in a higher coverage of
clouds, rain, and storms, this would allow less time for the
environment to rebound and decrease storm potential in the
afternoon. If Sunday morning remains dry, CAMS indicate the
potential for 2000-3000 J/KG of CAPE supporting a low end severe
threat for the evening. Again this is a conditional threat however
any storms that do develop will pose a risk for damaging winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

Come Monday, the passage of the cold front will leave a cooler
air mass in place. Monday and Tuesday will see high temps in the
low 80s with dewpoints remaining in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Ridging in the central CONUS will set up at the end of the short
term resulting in a very dry air mass remaining in place through
the duration of the long term. While highs will gradually climb
back up to the high 80s, dry air aloft will greatly suppress rain
chances through the first half of the long term. Chances for rain
in the second half of the long term remain uncertain. Global
models indicate a possible split flow pattern through the end of
the work week in the form of a trough splitting off into the Gulf.
If the trough takes a more eastern track, this will favor low to
medium rain chances for the second half of the long term. If the
trough take a more southern track or struggles to form, this will
likely keep us mostly dry through the duration long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with light
southerly winds. While there is a low chance of thunderstorms from
a MCS tomorrow morning, confidence is low so have opted to not
have mention in this forecast update.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...GH