Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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718 FXUS64 KHUN 210807 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Another hot day is expected across the Tennessee Valley as high pressure remains centered across the area. Expect afternoon highs to top out in the low to mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, heat index values may approach triple digits this afternoon. While some hi-res models indicate some isolated convection developing this afternoon across the Cumberland Plateau in TN, these showers should remain to our north and east. The only local impact will be in some increased cloud cover across NE AL. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The hot, humid, and dry pattern will continue through the weekend. With the upper ridge and high pressure remaining overhead, expect more of the same with afternoon highs Sat and Sun in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. At this time maximum heat index values this weekend reach the triple digits by the afternoon, but remain below criteria for a Heat Advisory. Regardless, it will be quite warm out and those with outside plans should drink plenty of water and find areas of shade when possible. On Sunday night a weak trough attempts to drop down from the Ohio River Valley. This boundary should provide a low (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into early Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 A more unsettled pattern appears will return, as a warm upper ridge moves towards the Southern High Plains, and upper troughing amplifies across the NE CONUS. This shift in the upper level flow pattern and a return of more moisture will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms, and hopefully help alleviate near drought conditions developing over this region. But hot and humid conditions will continue despite rain chances early next week. Going with the NBM (which has been underplaying high temperatures as of late), highs on Monday should rise into the low/mid 90s. Lower 70s dewpoints and this warmth will produce heat index readings from the mid 90s to 107 degrees. The higher end of this was over parts of western Lauderdale and northern Colbert counties, and southern Madison, Limestone and NE Morgan and NW Marshall counties. A SW flow and strong early summer solar input will make for an even warmer day Tue with highs in the mid/upper 90s, and a similar area being impacted by heat index values above 105 degrees. Heat Advisories may be needed should this trend continue in future forecasts. This heat and moisture return brings chances of showers and thunderstorms on Mon/Tue, mainly in the afternoon coinciding with the most unstable time of day. Even deeper moisture arriving Wednesday with precipitable water amounts rising into the 1.5" to 2" range, will bring moderate to high (40-60%) rain chances Wed/Wed night. A cold front approaching from the north will help enhance rain chances, with some of the rain locally heavy during Wed. High precipitable water amounts sometimes result in electrically active storms as well. With more clouds and better rain chances, high temps for the midweek and Thursday should trend into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures next week will range mainly in the low/mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 VFR conditions with light winds and clear skies are expected through the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...GH