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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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261 FXUS64 KHUN 160233 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 933 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight) Issued at 933 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A few showers and storms that developed earlier along on of two boundaries draped across northern Alabama and Georgia have primarily dissipated. Some additional shower and thunderstorm have developed over the past hour on the southern boundary that extends from Atlanta, GA WNW to Ragland, AL to just southwest of Cullman county, AL. The bulk of this activity remains over southwestern Georgia on the southeastern portion of this boundary. Some of the mesoscale models slowly move this boundary northeast tonight and into the overnight hours. This boundary could bring an isolated shower or storm to Cullman county through 1 AM. Otherwise, the loss of daytime heating and weak lift overall overnight should allow this activity to die off (even where north of where that cluster of storms is in SW Georgia) before then. There should be enough cloud cover associated with this boundary to produce some partly to briefly mostly cloud conditions later this evening and overnight. This should help keep overnight lows a warmer than last night. The advection of very moist dewpoints along that boundary as it pushes northward should be the main driver that keeps our lows overnight into Sunday morning very warm, only dropping into the 70 to 76 degree range over much of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. So not much of a break from heat in some areas that experienced 95 to 98 degree highs earlier today. Some fog could form overnight east of the I-65 corridor and near bodies of water, but cloud cover might keep that from occurring in most locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 What could be the hottest day of the year so far will arrive for Fathers Day (Sunday), with the ridge setting up just east of the area -- with mid to perhaps upper 90s highs forecast over a vast majority of the forecast area once again. Slightly higher dewpoints will put peak heat index values between 100-104 over much of the area, with the HSV/DCU/MSL metro areas potentially reaching 105 degrees for at least an hour or two. Limited amount of Apparent T values greater than 105 prevented a Heat Advisory issuance for now, but it should be noted that major heat impacts to vulnerable populations may be felt tomorrow from the late morning through the afternoon. Those that are sensitive heat should take extra precautions and everyone should use common sense and limit their time outdoors during the peak heating of the day. Additionally, low chances for showers/storms will return to the forecast Sunday afternoon -- favored along the higher terrain of NE Alabama. This activity will pulse like in nature and very limited in duration and intensity. Main threats with the strongest storms will be localized gusty winds. The ridge will become centered further east over the Carolinas, with southerly flow continuing to advect moisture back into the area on Monday. Low chances for diurnally driven storms will exist again Monday afternoon/evening, but highs will be cooler in the lower 90s. Stronger subsidence will limit our potential for convection on Tuesday, but continued mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions will push highs into the lower 90s again. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Strong upper level high pressure on Tuesday should be situated over the Mid Atlantic with maximum heights around 594 decameters. It will build somewhat more to the NE, and amplify to near 600 decameters over the New York City region Wednesday, then weaken somewhat and build more southward in the latter portion of next week. Despite the presence of the upper ridge, deep moisture from the Gulf surging inland will keep more clouds than sun in the forecast on Tue/Wed. This moisture with precipitable water amounts nearing 2 inches across parts of NW Alabama will keep lower end chances of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Despite the clouds and rain chances, rather warm and muggy conditions are forecast with highs rising to around 90, and heat index values into the mid/upper 90s. The moisture surge should be suppressed more to our west late Wednesday into Thursday, thus back to dry conditions for the rest of the abbreviated work week. High temps on Juneteenth/Wednesday will warm into the lower 90s, and mid 90s Thursday and Friday. Heat index values on Wed should range in the lower 90s, and mid 90s for Thu/Fri. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions continue overnight through Sunday afternoon at both KMSL and KHSV with light, variable winds. Sunday, low chances (30%) of thunderstorms exists during the afternoon hours which will allow a PROB30 group to be introduced at both sites for possible MVFR conditions due to lowered visibilities. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....AMP LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...HC