Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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951 FXUS64 KHUN 180017 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 717 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure continues to remain the dominant weather feature across the Tennessee Valley and is promoting dry and generally clear conditions across the region. Scattered to broken decks of mid to high clouds from a stalled low over the Carolinas have infiltrated the eastern half of the area -- creating partly to mostly cloudy conditions. Expect these clouds will thin later this evening and overnight, with mostly clear and calm conditions forecast across the region -- allowing temperatures to fall into the lower 60s. This will also create a very favorable setup for radiation fog, especially across northwest Alabama and the Bankhead National Forest (where heavy rainfall occurred last weekend). This fog will develop late this evening and may become locally dense late tonight into early Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The area of low pressure to our east will shift NE into the Mid Atlantic region as a ridge of high pressure over south Texas expands eastward into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley mid to late week. The end result will be continued mostly clear and dry weather and a gradual warming trend by the end of the work week. Highs will gradually rise to the lower 90s by Friday, with model soundings showing a very dry profile indicative of strong subsidence from the ridge. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday) Issued at 157 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure will remain the dominating feature through the long term forecast. Mid level ridging will build in from the SW and remain through the weekend. While the overall trend will be clear and dry conditions with temps in the high 80s to low 90s, we will be monitoring any impacts from an upper low tracking east across the CONUS. Being on the eastern periphery of high pressure will place us in a NW flow regime marking a favorable pattern for SE expansion of clouds and rain from the parent low. While the current forecast is dry, we will be monitoring how these two features interact (NW flow from high pressure and low pushing east) over the next several days for any forecast changes. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 717 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A broken layer of As (with cloud bases btwn 6-10 kft) will persist across the eastern portion of north AL this evening as the region remains within the broader circulation around an upper low across western SC. Although current satellite data suggests that the leading edge of this cloud mass may spread westward with time early this evening, it should begin to erode (or effectively move eastward) beginning later tonight. Thus, we have sufficient confidence in the development of BR/FG (in an otherwise favorable environment) to introduce MVFR vsby reductions at 6Z followed by a TEMPO group btwn 9-13Z, which is the timeframe when fog should be most widespread and locally dense. Any fog will lift shortly after daybreak, with NNW flow of 5-10 kts and a sct-bkn Cu field developing by 14Z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM...AMP LONG TERM...RAD AVIATION...70/DD