100
FXUS64 KHUN 211848
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
148 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Dry conditions are expected overnight as ridge continues to drift
southwestward across the local area. Increasing moisture and
passing high cloud cover will moderate low temps to within a 2-3
degrees of daily record high min temperatures for Saturday
morning. Current lows are forecast to only drop into the upper 60s
to the east and low/mid 70s for the remainder of north Alabama
and southern middle Tennessee. Current high min records stand at
75 (2002) for Muscle Shoals and 76 (2010) for Huntsville.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Ridge will continue to shift westward, centering over Texas by
late Saturday into Sunday. This will leave the local area on the
eastern extent of the ridge under increasing mid-level
northwesterly flow. With the ridge still fairly strong over the
area on Saturday, we are expecting a continuation in the dry, warm
weather. Highs will top out in the low/mid 90s with dewpoints in
the mid/upper 60s during the day leaving heat indices in the mid
90s to around 100. Temps continue to warm into Sunday with heat
indices in the 100-105 degrees range for many areas. As ridge
weakens on Sunday, we will open the door to the influence of
passing shortwave activity. Chances for showers and storms will
increase late on Sunday as a shortwave trough passes to the
northeast across the OH River Valley with best timing being
overnight Sunday into Monday. Chances for precipitation top out
between 30-40 percent during that time. The severe threat with
this activity currently looks low.

Precautions should be taken this weekend to avoid heat-related
illness including drinking plenty of water, wearing loose-fitting
and light-colored clothing, and avoiding activity during the peak
heating hours of the day (10 AM to 5 PM). Take frequent breaks in
the shade if you do need to be outside during the heat of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A more unsettled pattern appears will return, as a warm upper ridge
moves towards the Southern High Plains, and upper troughing amplifies
across the NE CONUS. This shift in the upper level flow pattern and
a return of more moisture will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms, and hopefully help alleviate near drought conditions
developing over this region. But hot and humid conditions will
continue despite rain chances early next week. Going with the NBM
(which has been underplaying high temperatures as of late), highs on
Monday should rise into the mid/upper 90s. Lower 70s dewpoints
and this warmth will produce heat index readings from the mid 90s
to 107 degrees. The higher end of this was over parts of western
Lauderdale and northern Colbert counties, and southern Madison,
Limestone and NE Morgan and NW Marshall counties. A SW flow and
strong early summer solar input will make for an even warmer day
Tue with highs in the mid/upper 90s, and a similar area being
impacted by heat index values above 105 degrees. Some areas may
breach the triple digit mark on Tuesday afternoon. Heat
Advisories may be needed should this trend continue in future
forecasts.

This heat and moisture return brings chances of showers and
thunderstorms on Mon/Tue, mainly in the afternoon coinciding with the
most unstable time of day. Even deeper moisture arriving Wednesday
with precipitable water amounts rising into the 1.5" to 2" range,
will bring moderate to high (40-60%) rain chances Wed/Wed night. A
cold front approaching from the north will help enhance rain chances,
with some of the rain locally heavy during Wed. High precipitable
water amounts sometimes result in electrically active storms as
well. With more clouds and better rain chances, high temps for the
midweek and Thursday should trend into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Low temperatures next week will range mainly in the low/mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions expected at KHSV and KMSL through the TAF period.
Winds around 5 kts from the east this afternoon, before becoming
more light and variable by later this evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KG
SHORT TERM....KG
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...Serre