895
FXUS64 KHUN 171111
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
611 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Another seasonably warm night is ongoing across the mid TN Valley
this early Mon morning, with current temp trends mainly in the mid
70s/near 80F. Dew pts trends in the upper 60s/near 70F though will
allow temps to fall a few more degrees before the onset of the
daytime hrs. Otherwise, the center of the upper ridge axis will
become centered over the southern Atlantic states today, allowing
for a slightly more active southerly flow pattern to develop over
the lower MS Valley. This will translate into a low-medium chc for
showers/tstms (20-40%) later today, mainly along/west of I-65. The
pulse like nature of any convection may again allow for a few
stronger storms capable of gusty winds/brief heavy rainfall. With
the upper ridge displaced to the east, afternoon temps will trend
a few degrees cooler compared to the last few days, with highs
mainly in the lower 90s/near 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The upper ridge pattern will then begin to expand back to the west
starting tonight/Tue. The subtropical ridge at the sfc will also
build into the SE region for the start of the abbreviated work
week. All of this should deflect any upper waves west of the area,
while allowing for drier air between H5/H7 to spread into the SE
region out of the SSE. This should translate into a dry forecast
continuing thru Juneteenth/Wed night. Mid/high level cloud cover
though will prevail thru mid week, due in part to an influx of
moisture above H4 out of the W/SW. This will result in temps both
Tue/Wed trending more seasonal, with highs in the upper 80s/lower
90s. Overnight lows thru Wed night will also fall mainly into the
upper 60s/lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Dry conditions with very warm to hot conditions are expected to
continue for the remainder of the work week, thanks to strong upper
level ridging situated over the eastern Lower-48. The 500mb depiction
of this ridge has it amplifying to near 600 decameters height values
in the Thursday to early Friday timeframe. The upper ridge should
weaken somewhat as it settles more to the south this weekend, and
then replaced early next week as mean troughing builds in from the
north. While the upper ridge is in place and under partly cloudy
skies, highs on Thu should warm into the lower 90s. As the ridge
heads southward, subsidence under it should help make for more sunny
skies over the Tennessee Valley. More solar insolation should result
in the heat returning, with highs temperatures in the Friday-Sunday
time frame soaring into the mid 90s, with mid/upper 90s on Sat and
especially Sun. Corresponding heat index values in 90s Thu/Fri should
rise to around 100 degrees on Sat, and in the 99-104 degree range
Sun.

The models have backed off of a potential tropical born system moving
over the SE coast Thu/Fri, instead are focusing the deepest tropical
moisture over the Gulf and Caribbean. This moisture should be
directed more to our west, keeping the area rain free for the most
part in the latter half of the week. However, more moisture should
return on Sun, and bring isolated showers/thunderstorm chances to the
area. Rain chances may go up as we go into the next week, as a more
unsettled pattern possibly returns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

With mid/high clouds in place across much of the area, VFR conds
will continue into the late morning hrs. Sct shra/tsra are then
expected to develop heading into the afternoon period and a PROB30
group has been maintained for the 21-00Z time frame. Lingering
highs clouds will then prevail tonight with VFR conds expected
thru the remainder of the TAF period. Light/var winds will also
become SSE around 7-8kt later this morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...09