180
FXUS64 KHUN 240733
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
233 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Shrtwv upper trough is currently traversing NE thru the Midwest/OH
Valley regions, as a deeper trough pattern dives southward thru
the Plains states. The lead shrtwv is resulting in some isolated
showers/tstms over parts of the Mid South area and its possible
some of this activity crosses into the western half of the area
thru the early morning hrs. Otherwise, as the stronger trough axis
digs thru the Plains states and into the Midwest region, a weak
cold front is expected to approach the area from the NW. Scattered
to perhaps numerous showers/tstms will develop/along well ahead
of the approaching front and cross into the area later today. With
SBCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg coupled with 0-6km Bulk Shear
values around 40-45kt, a few strong/marginally severe storms are
possible this afternoon, mainly along/west of I-65 aided by highs
climbing into the upper 80s/near 90F. Brief damaging wind gusts
coupled with locally heavy rainfall will be the main threats with
any stronger storms today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The front will drift into NW AL this evening and lightly stall,
with lingering showers/tstms continuing along/ahead of the weak
sfc boundary, although the loss of buoyant energy will likely
offset the prob for any additional stronger storms. The influx of
slightly cooler air may at least allow for lows early Wed more in
the mid/upper 60s. The unsettled/wet pattern will then continue
into the middle of the week, as the upper trough pattern evolves
into a closed low over the Midwest/Mid South areas. Additional
periods of showers/tstms along/ahead of the stalled front are
expected into Wed night, although considerable cloudiness/rainfall
may limit much in the way of airmass destabilization. Rainfall
amounts Tue/Wed predom look to be around 1-3 inches. Given these
conditions, highs on Wed may struggle to surpass the upper 70s,
with lows Wed night falling into the lower/mid 60s.

The pattern will then shift to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine out
of the western Caribbean lifting north and strengthening into a
hurricane prior to landfall along the eastern Gulf Coast/Big Bend
area of FL Thu night. Outer bands of showers/tstms associated with
the oncoming tropical system will spread northward into the region
during the day Thu, especially east of I-65. The eventual track of
this system remains uncertain, although its likely to pass east of
the area into GA and the Carolinas. Nevertheless, additional rain
totals Thu/Thu night could range from 2-4 inches, especially east
of I-65. Rainfall within these tropical bands may certainly be
heavy at times and a Flood Watch may be needed starting Thu if not
earlier. Gusty winds are also possible across NE AL Thu/Thu night,
although this threat may be limited with a more eastward track.
With abundant cloud cover/rainfall, highs on Thu may trend more in
the mid 70s, with lows that night again falling into the lower/mid
60s for most spots.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The forecast going into the Long Term portion will of course be
dependent on the eventual track of the tropical system, but the
rainfall impacts to the area may transition more to the upper low
over the Mid South/lower MS Valley regions as opposed to the
remnant tropical system exiting to the ENE. Medium chances for
showers/tstms (30-50%) are expected on Fri, as the upper low
begins to drift eastward. However, given the slower movement of
this feature, rain chances look to taper off this weekend to
around 20-30%. In fact, any additional rainfall looks to remain as
showers, although an isolated storm cannot be ruled out Sun
afternoon. With less cloud cover/rainfall, highs this weekend look
to climb back into the lower 80s/near 80F. Those rain chances
increase slightly on Mon, as the upper low begins to lift into the
OH Valley area. Highs on Mon also look to trend more in the upper
70s/near 80F. Lows this weekend and into next week look to remain
in the lower/mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

With mid/high clouds continuing to spread into the area from the
west, VFR conds are expected well into the morning hrs Tue. Sct to
perhaps num shra/tsra will then gradually spread eastward into the
area Tue afternoon ahead of a weak cold front and a PROB30 group
has been maintained during this period for reduced cig/vis. Shra
may then linger across the area Tue evening although cigs look to
remain above 3K ft. Light/var winds will also become SW near 7-8kt
with higher gusts late Tue morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...09