302
FXUS64 KHUN 221922
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
222 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A broad sub-tropical ridge is in place across the TN Valley today
aiding in the suppression of convection. A cu field developed with
the onset of deeper mixing, but has subsided to some extent with
moisture dispersion. Clouds atop the plateau so far have shown no
sign of significant particle growth/aggregation, and any chances
for shower development this afternoon still look very small to
nil. Otherwise, hot temperatures in the low/mid 90s prevail across
the area. Mixing of drier air aloft accompanied with mild dry air
advection wrapping around the Srn Appalachians and into the area,
are keeping heat index values down today.

For tonight, quiet weather conditions are expected to prevail.
Temperatures should fall into the upr 60s to lower 70s again
tonight. Guidance was undercut a bit, considering recent warm
biases in min temps in the relatively dry airmass regime.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The broad sub-tropical ridge will shift to the west tomorrow
while a short wave begins to carve out a trough in the Grt Lakes
region. A cold front trailing the developing sfc low will push
southward into the OH/TN Valley region during the day. Warm and
increasingly moist air ahead of the front will move eastward into
the area, and along with increased dynamic forcing, generate a few
showers and thunderstorms. As noted in hi-res guidance, the more
intense cells may form along a line of sorts with the latest
timing indicating movement across our area from the late afternoon
into the evening. Rainfall would be heavy in some cells with PWs
pushing ~2 in and modest MUCAPEs ~ 1.5-2 KJ/Kg. Otherwise, the
risk for any severe weather appears very low.

The front appears likely to push southward across the area while
becoming increasingly non-descript. Nevertheless, mild dry air
advection from modified continental air is expected to move into
the area on Monday, pushing dew points that had risen ahead of
the front, back down into the 60s for most areas.

On Tuesday, a slightly more robust trough/front will begin working
their way across the Central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a
warmer/moister airmass will be swept out of the Plains ahead of
the front and into the TN Valley. Temperatures may reach into the
upper 90s for many locations on Tuesday, perhaps even topping 100
degrees for typically warmer areas, especially urban locations.
The main caveat to the temperatures on Tuesday will be chances for
increasing cloudiness and shower/thunderstorm activity during the
afternoon, which may tend to hold the hotter temperatures at bay.
Otherwise, this appears to the most likely day in which a Heat
Advisory may be needed during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The heat finally breaks on Wednesday as another front pushes
through the local forecast area. This front will bring much needed
area wide showers and storms Wednesday into Thursday morning.
Once again shear is quite weak, so not anticipating any severe
storms. Given the cloud cover and precipitation, afternoon
temperatures peak in the upper 80s to low 90s both Wednesday and
Thursday. The upper level ridge begins to build back eastward and
once again hot and humid conditions return to finish off the work
week with afternoon highs returning to the low to mid 90s on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected for KHSV and KMSL terminals over the
next 24 hours.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...KDW