764
FXUS64 KHUN 231936
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
236 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A broken line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms ahead
of a surface cold front continues to progress southeast over
Tennessee this afternoon. This activity has been pretty meager
over the past couple of hours, but model guidance suggests
redevelopment this evening over southern middle Tennessee and
northwest Alabama that will progress southeast over northern
Alabama through late evening. Bulk shear looks to range between
10-20 knots, with instability values between 1500-2500 J/kg
(especially early this evening). Therefore, while a strong storm
with some gusty winds cannot be ruled out, confidence in any
severe weather is pretty low. Shower/storm activity is expected to
dwindle into the overnight hours. Some patchy fog development is
then possible late tonight into early Monday morning. Overnight
low temperatures will be warm, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Northwest flow aloft will persist into Monday, but upper ridging
will begin to push back into the region for Tuesday. Although,
this will be short-lived as an upper shortwave looks to move over
the Mississippi Valley and towards the Tennessee Valley Tuesday
night. At the surface, the cold front that brought low chances of
showers in the near term will move to our south. High pressure
will build in behind it and progress southeastward over the
Appalachians through Tuesday. Overall, no rain chances are
anticipated Monday through Tuesday evening. Very low chances
(10-15%) of showers return to northwest Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning ahead of a system slated to move through the area on
Wednesday (discussed in the section below).

It will be hot early next week as high temperatures are expected
to reach the mid to upper 90s. Continued elevated moisture will
cause "feels like" temperatures (heat indices) to be in the mid
90s to around 100 degrees on Monday. It`ll be a bit warmer on
Tuesday, with heat indices forecast to reach the mid 90s to around
102 degrees east of I-65 and between the upper 90s to around
103-104 degrees on Tuesday (perhaps a few areas around 105 in far
northwest Alabama). While these values are below Heat Advisory
criteria, we urge caution. Remember heat safety! Wear loose-
fitting, light-colored clothing, take frequent breaks in the
shade, and stay hydrated! Also, take caution for your pets as
well! Be cautious of the hot pavement, make sure they have ample
water and shade, and limit their time outdoors. The aforementioned
cold front will bring a slight reprieve Monday night, allowing
lows to dip into the mid to upper 60s. However, warm conditions
return Tuesday night with lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A shortwave and possibly MCS in the central Plains will arrive in
the TN valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, which could factor
into our temperature forecast which right now says lower to middle
90s. However, PoPs will be increasing to the 30-50% range
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Although sustained large scale
heavy rain is not foreseen at this point, a few areas of 0.25-0.50
inch totals look obtainable. This will be followed by a weakening
frontal passage Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Notice I
didn`t even mention the word cold. Southerly low level flow will
develop Friday into Saturday, bringing sustained higher dew points
in the 70s along with the hot temperatures, thus increasing the
potential for excessive heat index values and risk into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions will largely prevail through Monday. A broken line
of showers/storms is currently moving over Tennessee and may hold
together to bring low shower/storm chances (15-30%) to the
terminals later this afternoon and into this evening. No rain is
then anticipated overnight through Monday morning. Some patchy fog
development is possible overnight; however, confidence in
occurrence at the terminals was too low to include in the TAFs at
this time. Northwest winds between 5-10 knots this afternoon will
persist through early this evening before becoming light and
variable tonight. Light north winds are then anticipated by mid-
morning on Monday.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...26