Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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041 FXUS63 KICT 170522 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are possible (15-20%) across central KS late this evening into the overnight - Southerly winds up to 45 mph Monday and Tuesday - Hot temperatures continue into next week - Active weather pattern with multiple rain chances Tuesday through Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 As of 2 PM Sunday afternoon, a midlevel ridge axis was amplifying across the eastern CONUS while a shortwave trough digs across the northwest US. Closer to home, another morning of WAA driven showers/storms trained across portions of McPherson, Marion, and Chase counties. At this hour, this activity has dissipated and dry conditions prevail area-wide. A remnant MCV is noted on satellite imagery across northern OK and may contribute to additional shower/storm development across southern KS through early evening. Otherwise, another warm and humid afternoon is expected with temperatures in the 90s and dew points near 70. Combining these two will yield heat index values near 100 degrees. Further west, a surface trough axis continues to deepen across the high Plains. While large scale ascent remains meager, strong surface heating and upslope flow across northeast CO and adjacent portions of NE and KS should allow thunderstorm development later this afternoon. A strong LLJ near 50 kt could provide sufficient WAA for storm maintenance into portions of central KS. Given this potential, have added a slight chance for thunderstorms across central KS late this evening and early Monday morning. Damaging winds up to 60 mph and brief heavy rainfall are possible with any storm overnight. Transitioning into next week, the midlevel ridge axis will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS early next week, leaving the Plains on the western periphery. Continued lee troughing across the high Plains will yield a strong pressure gradient Monday and Tuesday. Southerly wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible, especially across central KS. In addition, warm conditions will continue with temperatures in the 80s and 90s much of the week. The previously mentioned northwestern US trough will pivot into the central states Tuesday into Wednesday, shunting a cold front into KS. This should shunt the warmest temperatures into the MS Valley. Confidence continues to increase for additional shower/storm chances Tuesday through Thursday, especially across central and northern KS. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Main aviation concern will be strong south winds today. Shortwave trough is expected to dig across the Northern Intermountain today. This will allow for lee troughing to continue to strengthen, resulting in strong south winds. We are looking for sustained south winds around 30 mph with gusts 40-45 mph for locations along and west of I-135. Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain in place through the next 24 hours. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMB AVIATION...RBL