Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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651 FXUS63 KICT 191917 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 217 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms still expected this evening across the Flint Hills into southeast KS with a few strong/severe storms possible. - Above normal temps once again forecast for Friday with highs in the upper 90s to around 100 across south central and southeast KS. - Increasing shower/storm chances for the weekend with the Sat night-Sun time frame looking like that best chance for most of the area to get wet. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave impulse tracking across southern Manitoba with another upper low about to come onshore over Southern CA. At the surface, cold front extends from eastern Nebraska into central KS. A few storms developed early this afternoon across southeast KS in an area of strong mid level moisture transport with this activity about to move out of the forecast area. Still looking for additional development by early this evening along the cold front/trough with current thinking that the initial development maybe over north central OK. Any storm that develops southeast of the KS Turnpike will have a good chance to be severe given 2,000-2,500J/KG of CAPE and effective deep shear of 35-40kts. For Fri into Fri evening, West Coast upper low will track from Southern CA into the Desert Southwest. In response we will get back into some return flow across the area on Fri as what is left of the cold front washes out. Confidence in storm chances is very low for Fri. There will be plenty of instability by the afternoon but surface convergence and especially upper support isn`t that great. At this time, feel the better storm chances will be Fri night across mainly eastern KS where 850-700mb moisture transport will be maximized. By Sat afternoon, there is good model agreement in the upper low tracking over the Four Corners region and across the Central Rockies Sat night. At the same time a stationary front will stretch from Eastern Nebraska into northwest KS. Still looking for the most widespread shower and storm activity Sat-Sat evening to be tied to the front with this feature expected to move through the forecast area from early Sun morning through early Sun evening. Feel that this is when most of our forecast area will get wet with this system. By Mon morning the upper impulse will be tracking into IA with cold front exiting the forecast area. Still looking for highs in the 70s for both Mon and Tue with a gradual warm-up as we head into the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Widely scattered showers/storms expected along a surface trof/dry-line front this afternoon through early this evening across southeast Kansas. Localized IFR/MVFR vsbys can be expected in heavy rain with storms along with strong, possibly severe wind gusts and hail. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with a wind shift associated with the passage of the boundary. KED && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...KED