550
FXUS63 KICT 150859
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
359 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated (mainly morning) showers possible over parts of central
  KS through early next week.

- Unseasonably warm conditions will linger through much of the
  upcoming week.

- Increasing precipitation chances late in the week with a
  cooldown anticipated next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The large-scale pattern features a large trough beginning to impact
much of the western CONUS while an upper level ridge was situated
across parts of the Great Lakes/Northeast and a weak trough
continued to be situated over the Lower Mississippi Valley area. A
more subtle mid/upper ridge was impacting the Southern and parts of
the Central Plains.

This pattern will remain very similar until the middle/latter
portion of the upcoming week as the western CONUS trough is progged
to translate slowly eastward while the upper level ridge over the
Northeast is slowly displaced and the trough over the Lower
Mississippi Valley area deepens and lifts into the Mid-Atlantic area
later in the week. Meanwhile, mid/upper level ridging will be slow
to erode over the Southern and Central Plains and will amplify on
Thu-Fri keeping unseasonably warm conditions in place through the
upcoming work-week.

A lead wave lifting over the Central Rockies late Tue into early Wed
will bring the first round of more robust showers and storms to the
Central Plains but confidence in how far east it rolls off the High
Plains remains rather low.

We will continue to carry low pops for mainly morning showers
impacting parts of central KS early in the week. The better chances
for more widespread shower and storms may remain further west across
the High Plains as mid/upper level ridge axis remains firmly planted
across eastern Kansas. Better chances for more widespread meaningful
precipitation should arrive late Friday into the weekend as a cold
front moves over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Short-term ensemble guidance suggests a high likelihood of low
stratus building in southeast KS just before sunrise, similar to
Saturday morning. Confidence is therefore high in MVFR/IFR cigs at
CNU for at least a few hours. These will give way to VFR after
sunrise.

Additionally, there remains a low chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop early this morning across central KS. Will
AMD as necessary as confidence in timing and exact location is low
at this time. Otherwise, look for VFR conditions to dominate through
the end of the period, with winds once again blowing predominantly
out of the south/southeast at all sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JWK