Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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128 FXUS63 KICT 160808 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 308 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated showers and storms this morning - Heat indices up to 104 today - Multiple chances for showers and storms Tuesday through Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Warm moist advection and an exiting LLJ continues to support a few showers and storms this morning, with the best coverage continuing mainly to the northeast. Expect activity to dwindle within a couple hours of sunrise. Today longwave troughing will begin to shape up across the western CONUS while ridging becomes more amplified across the eastern CONUS resulting in southerly to southwesterly flow overhead for the next few days. Heat indices will approach the low 100s across portions of central and south central KS with quiet conditions prevailing across the area. Lee troughing will tighten up the pressure gradient across the state and bring gusty southerly winds to the area thru mid week. Wind headlines may need to be considered for the tomorrow afternoon through Tuesday period, especially across central KS. Otherwise, expect temps in the 90s continuing area wide. By late Tuesday to Wednesday a compact shortwave will move thru the main longwave trough and push a cold front through the region increasing chances of showers and storms. Intermittent shower and storm chances will continue across the area through Thursday, with slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 expected for the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Main aviation concern will be a few storms over the next couple of hours. Scattered storms remain over northeast KS in an area of persistent 850-700 theta-e advection. There is a chance a storm or two may affect KSLN in the next couple of hours, but the majority of the area is expected to remain dry. Even though there will be plenty of instability and mostly uncapped, not expecting afternoon storm development due to lack of surface focus or upper level support. South winds will remain gusty today with gusts 30-35 mph common at all sites. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KMB AVIATION...RBL