Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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463 FXUS63 KICT 172335 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 635 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms across central and western CO will move into western KS this evening and possibly central KS overnight - Additional storms, possibly severe, Wednesday afternoon/evening across central and south central KS - Widespread rainfall possible throughout the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 As of 2 PM Tuesday afternoon, a strong midlevel shortwave trough was ejecting from the southwest US into the central Rockies. Scattered convection has develop in-advance of the trough axis across central and western CO. Short-range guidance progresses this convection east- northeastward into portions of western KS this evening. The trough axis is poised to progress into the northern Plains overnight. As such, the strongest forcing-for-ascent will remain displaced to the northwest of our forecast area. Therefore, confidence is not overly high with widespread storms impacting the area tonight. The most favored zone (50-60%) remains central KS tonight into Wednesday morning. Meager lapse rates and shear should preclude any risk for severe storms. By Wednesday, this initial shortwave trough will be lifting into the northern High Plains with a second shortwave digging across the southwest US. The dryline will once again sharpen across west- central KS with dew points increasing into the mid-60s. While overall large scale ascent will remain meager, the conditional environment will remain favorable for supercells with tremendous low- level veering and modest speed shear aloft. At this point, the most- favorable zone is generally along a line from Russell to Great Bend. Any storm that develops, will have the potential to produce hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds up to 70 mph. Transitioning into Thursday, the previously mentioned shortwave trough will begin to progress eastward. The associated surface trough axis will sink southward into KS Thursday into Thursday night. This trough axis will stall across the region Friday into Friday night. A stray shower/storm cannot be ruled out Thursday night and Friday night but the absence of a strong LLJ may preclude widespread convection. As an even stronger midlevel trough emerges from the southwest US Friday, a sharpening of the stalled surface trough is expected with a 25-30 kt LLJ overrunning the boundary Friday night Saturday morning. This should result in widespread convection along and north of the front. At this point, the most likely zone for convection appears to be north of I-70. As the southwest US trough approaches the Four Corners region Saturday, the surface trough will slowly sink southward. This will bring the more-favorable zone for WAA driven convection to areas along and south of I-70. This may continue into Saturday night into Sunday. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended towards a midlevel trough track from southwest CO through western NE. This scenario would take the strongest height falls northwest of our forecast area, decreasing rain chances late Sunday into Monday. Now the big question is, how much rain might fall? EPS and NBM probabilities remain quite consistent with generally the northern half of KS standing the best potential to receive more than 1" of rain from Friday night through Sunday. It seems quite likely that southern KS will receive rainfall but probabilities for more than 1" are lower than northern KS. Stay tuned over the next few days for forecast updates. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the majority of this TAF period with southeast winds slowly diminishing this evening. A line of showers and thunderstorms will move into western Kansas this evening, eventually moving into central Kansas late tonight. This complex of storms should decay through the overnight hours as it shifts eastward but exactly where these storms dissipate remains uncertain at this time. The most confidence in seeing thunderstorms at a TAF site are GBD and RSL where prevailing thunderstorm mentions have been introduced, follow by SLN where a PROB30 mention continues. Latest guidance is indicating that these storms may even make it to ICT around daybreak but confidence remains too low in this scenario to introduce a thunder mention yet at this site. Winds will become breezy out of the south by late tomorrow morning at all sites. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRF AVIATION...WI