408
FXUS63 KICT 241946
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
246 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon

- Thunderstorms, some strong or severe, possible Tuesday afternoon

- A cooler, hot day Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A strong ridge of high pressure continues to build into the region
this afternoon.  Ample moisture is also present and is continuing to
advect into the region.  This has created a hot and humid
environment this afternoon with heat advisory criteria.  There is
enough moisture to permit thunderstorm activity this afternoon but
mid level temperatures at 700mb are a little on the warm side (13-
17C) which is not very conducive to thunderstorm activity.  This
will keep the chances for thunderstorms to a minimum if any occur at
all. Western Kansas and Central Kansas are the most likely areas to
see any thunderstorm activity today if it occurs.  Tuesday, the
ridging will continue allowing dangerously hot temperatures during
the afternoon.  Heat indices again are expected to remain in the 104-
109 range.  The main difference is there may be some morning cloud
cover around slowing the speed of the temperatures rise but still
expect temperatures to breech the century mark across the CWA.  By
the afternoon and into the evening, a weak cold front will be
pushing into the region.  This will increase the chances for showers
and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorm chances across the CWA look better for Tuesday
afternoon as the 700mb temps look to be a little cooler (10-12C)
which will help the convection get going.  Shear profiles are not
very good and upper level winds are okay (50-60kt range) so the
chances for wide spread severe weather is not good.  Lapse rates and
low level moisture are very good though and with the cooler 700mb
temperatures, there is a good potential for a few strong storms to
develop.  Additionally, PW values are in the 1.5 to 2 inch range
which will well above normal for this time of year.  This indicates
any storms that develop will be capable very heavy rain and brief
down burst winds approaching 60 mph.

Wednesday, the front will move past and allow some cooler and drier
air to move into the region.  While the temperatures will be
"cooler" it will still be a hot day with temperatures in the 90s
across the region.  Thursday and into the weekend look to remain
unsettled with a couple of systems coming through.  This will keep
the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the
extended with temperatures continuing to be above normal for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF cycle with a strong ridge
overhead.  This will keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms
for this TAF cycle minimal at best.  KRSL and KGBD are the most
likely terminals to see any convection but confidence is too low to
place it in the TAF at this time.  The main concern will be the high
temperatures and humidity which will push the density altitude into
the 4000-5000 ft range.  This could be an issue for density altitude
sensitive airframes this afternoon.  Tonight will be VFR with
lighter winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Record highs for Monday and Tuesday:

          Today (Record) | Today`s Highs

Wichita     103 (1980)         102
Salina      107 (1937)         103
Chanute     105 (1918)         100
Russell     110 (2012)         104

         Tuesday (Record)|Tuesday`s Highs

Wichita     107 (1911)         101
Salina      114 (1911)         101
Chanute     104 (1933)          97
Russell     108 (2012)         101

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...ELM
CLIMATE...ELM