401
FXUS63 KICT 230737
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
237 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat for Monday and Tuesday!

- Chance for showers/storms Tuesday evening/night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Main concern is the expected more intense heat/humidity combo
for Monday and Tuesday across central and eastern Kansas. The
weak surface front will continue to settle south into Oklahoma
during this morning. A somewhat drier low level airmass yet only
subtly less hot for today with highs still well into the 90s.
Upper ridging will build over New Mexico/Arizona over the next
couple of days with weak west-northwest flow aloft around the
periphery of the ridge across Kansas. A hot southerly low level
flow will establish itself from the southern across the central
Plains. Low level thermal profiles support highs at or above
the century mark for locations along/west of the Kansas
turnpike on Monday and Tuesday. The only caveat being potential
for a subtle outflow boundary to sink southward into central
Kansas early Tuesday from nocturnal convection across southern
Nebraska. Confidence is high to meet Heat Advisory criteria on
Monday afternoon/early evening and is supported by inter-office
collaboration. This headline is likely to be extended into
Tuesday with later forecast issuances with potential for some
areas meeting excessive heat warning criteria. There is better
support for a weak front to slip southward across the area on
Tuesday evening/night, bringing at least modest chances for
showers/storms to the area. Subtly less hot air is then expected
for Wednesday, though still a bit above climo. It looks to
remain hot with temperatures averaging above climo into the end
of the week, before a stronger upper trof sweeps eastward across
the northern conus pushing a somewhat stronger cold front south
across the area by the start of next weekend.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

A very low (less than 10%) chance of an isolated shower exists
across southeast Kansas for the next couple of hours. Otherwise,
dry conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will
generally remain at or below 10 knots and the wind direction
gradually shifts from northeasterly to southerly as a frontal
boundary draped across the area becomes more diffuse throughout
the day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Record highs for Monday and Tuesday:

             Monday          Tuesday

Wichita     103 (1980)      107 (1911)
Salina      107 (1937)      114 (1911)
Chanute     105 (1918)      104 (1933)
Russell     110 (2012)      108 (2012)

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7
PM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-
098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...JC
CLIMATE...ELM