Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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233 FXUS63 KICT 220721 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 221 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong/marginally severe storms possible this evening for locations generally east of I-135. - Excessive heat possible for some areas on Monday and most of the area on Tuesday. - Shower/storm chances with frontal passage by Tuesday night bringing brief heat relief for mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Plenty of mid-level clouds with isolated/widely scattered sprinkles early this morning within the residual high precipitable water airmass. A hot afternoon is on tap ahead of a modest cold front which will drop southward across central Kansas by mid-afternoon. Diurnal heating is expected to result MLcape values around 2000 j/kg in the presence of modest bulk shear in vicinity of the frontal boundary. Convergence should be sufficient to overcome weak capping for isolated to widely scattered convection as the front sinks southward across the Flint Hills into southern Kansas during the evening. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, mainly east of the I-135 corridor with a risk for down-burst winds/hail. Heat indices will generally climb into the 100 to 104 range which remain below Heat Advisory criteria. The frontal passage will only bring subtly lower temperatures in some areas for Sunday with highs still climbing into the 90s. The most intense heat is still expected for Monday and Tuesday with highs around 100 degrees (highest west of the turnpike) with heat indices around 105 on Monday afternoon and from 105 to 110 on Tuesday (highest along/east of I-135). Heat Advisory or Excessive Heat Warnings will be needed for these early week periods with future forecast issuances. Perhaps some brief heat relief may come by late Tuesday into Wednesday with a weak frontal passage, though temperatures should still average above climo through the middle and end of next week. Darmofal && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR conditions expected through this afternoon, then a chance of showers and storms possible late this afternoon through late tonight. Breezy southerly winds will continue early this morning and last for much of the day today. Wind gusts around 20 to 30 knots at times from now through the afternoon, especially along and west of the Flint Hills. Around 22Z, a slow moving frontal boundary will sag into central and eastern Kansas, and widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected to commence. Thunderstorms should stay east of a KSLN-to-KICT line through the end of the TAF period. The area with the best chance for thunderstorms tonight will be KCNU and surrounding areas. Main concerns are gusty winds and heavy rainfall that will reduce visibility. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KED AVIATION...JC