133
FXUS63 KICT 232300
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
600 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures this week with widespread highs in the low
  to middle 70s.

- Isolated (20-30%) chances for showers Tuesday, then again
  later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates a lifting upper jet max
over the Great Lakes as a digging trough is situated over the
Northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends across the
Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio River Valley as high pressure
settles in over the Southern Plains.

After a quiet day across Kansas today, the upper trough currently
over the northern CONUS is progged to dive into Kansas early Tuesday
morning and provide forcing for isolated and low (20-30%) rain
chances throughout the day. Activity that manages to develop is not
expected to be severe, and coverage to this point looks to be
limited to the I-135 corridor east. Consensus among the global
deterministic suite for now is that the upper trough will then
continue to dive southeast before closing off and spinning over the
Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week and into the
weekend. In the wake of this, generally mild temperatures and dry
conditions are expected across the forecast area. However, mid-level
perturbations coming off the western edge of the circulation may
provide support for continued rain chances - especially in
east/southeast Kansas - later this week.

Looking ahead to the weekend, models continue to hint at the
possibility of this upper low retrograding back to the west as
a tropical system arrives in the southeast CONUS. This will
likely lead to continued mild and moist conditions across Kansas
through the weekend if this solution pans out. Stay tuned as
additional details become available in later forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Low clouds and moist low levels will linger across southeast
Kansas through tonight. Meanwhile the combination of radiational
cooling, light winds, and recent rainfall could lead to areas of
dense fog developing late tonight into Tuesday morning over
southeast Kansas. A upper level wave will move slowly southward
across eastern Kansas/western Missouri during the day on Tuesday
where some diurnally driven rain showers look to develop and
affect eastern Kansas in the afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...CDJ