780
FXUS63 KICT 220606
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
106 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance (20%) for showers through this evening.

- Increasing confidence for isolated showers and storms on
  Saturday, especially east of I-135.

- Hot on Monday and Tuesday, but chances for showers through the
  end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Water vapor imagery currently depicts an upper-level trough
gradually making its way eastward over the Great Basin as the
synoptic ridge continues to sit over the Ohio River Valley. Surface
analysis reveals a warm front extending from the High Plains to Lake
Michigan, which is providing lift for additional showers and
storms across the Northern Central Plains. SPC mesoanalysis once
again highlights anomalous PW values approaching 2" across
south central and eastern Kansas, which have led to a handful of
showers developing over the region this afternoon that are
making their way northward. These are expected to be short-lived
and diurnal in nature.

The upper-level disturbance making its way across the Northern
Central Plains will bring a cold front that will make its way across
central and eastern Kansas Saturday afternoon. This boundary will
provide sufficient lift for isolated showers and storms to develop
given rich moisture profiles and ~1500 J/kg of CAPE, but marginal
deep-layer shear around 20 kts should prevent widespread severe
storms from developing. Even so, the primary threats with any storms
tomorrow afternoon/evening will be 60 mph wind gusts and locally
heavy rainfall. Currently thinking development could extend as far
west as I-135 per the mid-range deterministic models and CAMs, but
coverage should remain primarily in east and northeast Kansas.

Heat will continue to be the primary focus heading into next week.
High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are forecast at or above 100
degrees for much of central and southeast Kansas, with heat indices
approaching 105-110 degrees. Long-range models are in general
agreement of shortwave energy providing chances for showers and
storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then later on in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions expected through this afternoon, then a chance of
showers and storms possible late this afternoon through late
tonight.

Breezy southerly winds will continue early this morning and last
for much of the day today. Wind gusts around 20 to 30 knots at
times from now through the afternoon, especially along and west
of the Flint Hills.

Around 22Z, a slow moving frontal boundary will sag into central
and eastern Kansas, and widely scattered thunderstorm
development is expected to commence. Thunderstorms should stay
east of a KSLN-to-KICT line through the end of the TAF period.
The area with the best chance for thunderstorms tonight will be
KCNU and surrounding areas. Main concerns are gusty winds and
heavy rainfall that will reduce visibility.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JC