Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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197 FXUS63 KICT 151734 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong to severe storms possible from late afternoon through tonight, mainly north and west of the KS-turnpike. - Heat indices will approach the low 100s tomorrow across portions of central and south central KS. - Additional storms possible again Tuesday-Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A compact shortwave trough axis is starting to emerge over eastern Colorado and will move across Kansas from mid-afternoon through late evening. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible by early afternoon and thru the evening as the associated PV wave impinges on the CWA. Best chances (20%) for storms across the area will be mainly north and west of the KS turnpike. Storms that can form may be strong to marginally severe. Increasing moisture advection is expected to expand across the area through tonight with a modest LLJ overhead, thus chances (20-25%) of elevated showers and storms will continue thru the overnight. By tomorrow afternoon, longwave troughing will begin to dominate the western CONUS while ridging dominates the eastern CONUS resulting in continued southerly to southwesterly flow overhead. Heat indices will approach the low 100s tomorrow across portions of central and south central KS. Lee troughing will tighten up the pressure gradient across the state and bring gusty southerly winds to the area thru mid week, with temps in the 90s continuing area wide. By late Tuesday to Wednesday a wave through the main western trough will push a cold front through the region increasing chances of showers and storms. Late week the pattern turns more zonal with chances of intermittent shower and storms continuing through Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A upper level wave will move eastward across Kansas today and will spark off some scattered showers/storms across parts of central/south central Kansas. Any remaining storms are expected to diminish shortly after sunset. Meanwhile south winds will remain gusty across the region until late evening hours. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KMB AVIATION...CDJ