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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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492 FXUS63 KICT 272328 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 628 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances this evening and overnight, and again Friday evening and overnight. Thunderstorm chances continue this weekend across mainly southern Kansas, and areawide from late Tuesday through next week. Periodic bouts of strong to severe storms are possible, along with locally heavy rain. - Oppressive summer heat Friday, and then again Monday and Tuesday of next week. A heat advisory has been hoisted areawide for Friday, and may be needed once again Monday- Tuesday of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 THIS EVENING--TONIGHT...In the near-term, we`re focusing on thunderstorm potential this evening and tonight across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in vicinity of a lee trough this afternoon across the High Plains, and progress east-southeast this evening- overnight, aided by a strengthening low-level jet and a subtle mid- level disturbance. Thinking the best chance for a few severe storms will be over central and north-central Kansas and points west, where a favorable combination of instability, steeper lapse rates, and deep layer shear will reside. Thinking the best potential for large hail (greater than quarter size) will be over the western half of Kansas this evening. As activity grows upscale and encounters less instability with time further east this evening (generally the eastern half of Kansas), the threat should transition to 50-65 mph winds, small hail, and locally heavy rain...the latter being driven by above average precipitable waters. FRIDAY--FRIDAY NIGHT...A smattering of morning showers/thunderstorms are possible Friday morning over eastern Kansas, within a zone of deep warm advection and moisture transport. Severe weather appears unlikely with this activity. Otherwise, attention then turns to thunderstorm chances Friday late afternoon and night, as a slow- moving frontal zone approaches from the northwest, with the southern fringe of a northern CONUS upper trough grazing the region. The combination of strong instability, steep lapse rates, and seasonable deep layer shear should support a few severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and damaging winds, along with locally very heavy rainfall given the high precipitable waters. By late evening and overnight, a 2nd complex of storms could roll east-southeast out of the High Plains into central KS, posing a 50-65 mph wind risk and locally heavy rain. The other main story for Friday is the heat, as atmospheric thickness builds in from the southwest and southerly flow increases. Thinking widespread 90s-100s are likely. When coupled with dewpoints in the 60s-70s, afternoon through early evening heat indices will top 105 degrees for many areas, and even approaching 110 degrees over portions of south-central and southeast Kansas. A heat advisory has been hoisted for all of central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. SATURDAY--SUNDAY...A somewhat cooler post-frontal airmass is expected over the weekend. Periodic thunderstorm chances will exist through the weekend as well, especially over the southern half of Kansas and Oklahoma, in vicinity of a stalled frontal zone. A few bouts of strong to severe storms are possible, along with locally heavy rain, especially from near the KS/OK border on south. MONDAY--THURSDAY...The heat and humidity build back north across the region for Monday and Tuesday, with heat headlines once again possible, as afternoon through early evening heat indices climb into the 100-108 degree range. Additionally, model consensus progresses a front south into the region by late Tuesday, and stalling it across the region through late week. This will support periodic thunderstorm chances across the region late Tuesday through the end of the week. A seasonable combination of instability and deep layer shear should support strong to severe storm chances, along with locally heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Ongoing showers and storms in western Kansas will provide the main aviation concern for the period as they move east/northeast into central Kansas. Highest confidence is in impacts to KGBD, KSLN, and KRSL around the 03-05Z period. Lower confidence is in the southward extent of coverage later tonight, so tempo`d VCTS for KHUT and KICT to reflect this and will AMD as necessary. Otherwise, look for strong southerlies to prevail throughout the overnight hours, before a boundary pushing through the state on Friday begins to veer winds around toward the north. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JWK