289
FXUS62 KILM 221932
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
332 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold fronts will bring a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms Monday and again by mid week. Otherwise typical
summer like conditions will be in place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Atlantic high pressure will prevail as a weak tropical disturbance
near the GA coast slowly shifts northward and weakens. Lingering
showers/isolated storms this evening will end due to loss of diurnal
heating but additional showers could impact the coast late tonight
where the best moisture convergence should occur. Increasing low-
level winds should prevent much fog tonight but models suggest some
could develop inland, especially in NC where low clouds are more
likely. Coastal showers should transition inland Sunday with even a
few rumbles of thunder possible. Severe storms are not expected but
locally heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to minor
flooding.

Lows tonight should be a bit above normal, generally in the lower to
mid 70s except upper 70s at the coast. Highs Sunday should be close
to normal near the coast but a bit above normal inland, ranging from
the mid to upper 80s at the coast to lower to mid 90s inland.
Although there is some uncertainty regarding how much dewpoints
lower during the day, we think max heat indices will mostly fall
below our Heat Advisory levels of 105 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A mid level trough and attendant cold front will move
across Monday with expected good coverage of showers and
thunderstorms late in the day. Still unsure of severe potential but
with the trough some decent shear should be available along with
good instability. Tuesday should be drier but can`t rule out
isolated activity.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Decent chance for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday into Friday via decent agreement with the global guidance.
This as another cold front/mid level trough combination move across.
BEyond this nothing really special or noteworthy with temperatures
in expected ranges.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC
through 18Z Sunday. There is a low risk for brief restrictions
from showers/possible storms this aftn and again mostly after
daybreak Sunday. More likely is the risk for low clouds again
late tonight, especially in NC at KILM/KLBT and across inland
SC at KFLO. Could also see some vsby restrictions from fog late
tonight, mainly inland at KLBT and KFLO, but low-level winds
should be too strong for much significant fog.

Extended Outlook... VFR to prevail outside of the periodic
MVFR/IFR from diurnally-induced showers/storms and morning low
clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...
The central Carolina waters will remain between
Atlantic high pressure to the east and an inland trough. Although
winds/seas will increase a bit Sunday due to the increasing pressure
gradient we don`t expect the need for a Small Craft Advisory.

Sunday Night through Thursday...
Expect a period of stronger southwest winds Monday in a
range of 15-20 knots ahead of a cold front. A brief period of weak
offshore winds early Tuesday will be followed by a typical summer
pattern of south to southeast winds. Significant seas of 2-4 feet
can be expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents is in effect
today for Pender and New Hanover County Beaches. Moderate rip
current risk across Horry and Georgetown County Beaches. Brunswick
County Beaches should see weak rip current activity today. The
elevated rip current activity will be aided by the 8+ second
period onshore waves and the enhanced tidal range due to the
current full moon. Wind speeds will not be as strong like the
past several days, and as a result could see weak to possibly
moderate longshore currents from the southerly winds this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...